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Geopolitics & Foreign Policy

US forces are under fire in the Middle East as America slides toward the brink.

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It’s possible that a malfunctioning drone in Iraq prevented America from being drawn more deeply into an increasingly intense Middle East conflict.

Two U.S. officials who are familiar with the situation claim that an Iranian-backed militia fired the drone at the Erbil air base on October 26 just before dawn. It managed to get past American air defenses and crash into the second floor of the barracks housing American personnel at around 5 a.m.

However, the explosive-laden device did not explode, and ultimately, just one serviceman had a concussion from the collision, according to the officials, who spoke candidly about the incident on condition of anonymity. They continued by saying that the U.S. had been lucky since the drone could have detonated and created havoc.

According to Pentagon statistics and the two U.S. officials, the event was one of at least forty distinct drone and missile assaults against U.S. soldiers by Iranian-backed militias in Iraq and Syria during the previous three weeks in retaliation for American assistance for Israel in the Gaza war.

With many of the rockets and one-way attack drones intercepted by American air defenses in Iraq and Syria, where 3,400 American soldiers are stationed, the bombardment has only resulted in a few dozen minor casualties thus far.

Former U.S. Assistant Secretary of State David Schenker of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy said that although the U.S. and its allies did not seem to seek a confrontation, the risks were mounting. “A very realistic concern,” he added, is the potential for a significant attack that pulls America into a battle.

He stated of the Syrian and Iraqi militias, “I think they are calibrating the attacks to harass rather than kill en masse U.S. troops.” “But there’s a lot more they can do.”

It’s uncertain how President Joe Biden would react in the event of a significant assault that claimed many American lives. Having struggled in surveys leading up to the presidential election of the following year, Biden has thus far attempted to restrict American involvement in the fight to supplying Israel with military assistance.

The conflict began on October 7, when militants from Hamas, the terrorist organization that controls the Palestinian enclave of Gaza and receives funding from Iran, stormed into southern Israel, murdering 1,400 people—mostly civilians—and kidnapping over 240 more. Over 10,000 Palestinians have died as a result of Israel’s constant bombardment of the coastal region since then; many of them were youngsters.

Iran has hailed the attack on Israel on October 7, but it claims no part in the Hamas incursion.

To pressure Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani to take decisive action against the militias operating there and prevent further escalation, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken traveled to Iraq on Sunday, the scene of the majority of attacks on American soldiers.

Five senior M.P.s in Sudan’s ruling coalition, the premier’s security adviser, and a militia commander claim that Sudan has not had much success in stopping the militia groups’ onslaught or persuading their Iranian backers to rein them in.

According to seven persons who were either there or were informed on the meeting, the prime minister and around ten senior officials of his cabinet met with the leaders of roughly a dozen militia groups in Baghdad on October 23 to pressure the organizations to stop their assaults on U.S. personnel.

However, the majority of the commanders promised to continue their attack until Israeli troops lifted their siege and stopped bombarding the Gaza Strip. Thus the request mainly was ignored, they continued.

“Nobody, including the prime minister, can oppose our religious obligation,” said Ali Turki, a prominent Shi’ite politician in the ruling coalition and a leader of the potent Asaib Ahl al-Haq militia, which Iran supports.

Another Shi’ite politician, Arif al-Hamami, expressed his pessimism about the chances of diplomatic success, saying, “I don’t think that the prime minister has the power to stop the attacks as long as Israel is committing atrocities in Gaza with American help.”

The governments of Iran and Iraq did not immediately respond to requests for comments regarding the militia assaults and the possibility of an escalation.

APPEAL OF IRAQ’S LEADER TO IRAN
The militias, whose backing the prime minister of Iraq needed to seize office a year ago and who now constitute a strong bloc inside his ruling coalition, are mainly under his control. Shi’ite power Iran provides training and funding to the terrorist organizations that grew in number in Iraq during the 2003 war spearheaded by the United States and that overthrew Saddam Hussein’s Sunni administration.

It’s been a case of shuttle diplomacy for Sudan. A prominent Iraqi politician close to the prime minister who was informed on the travel claims that the premier rushed to Tehran hours after seeing Blinken on Sunday to immediately appeal to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and other Iranian authorities for assistance.

Fearing that his politically and economically shaky nation could not afford an escalation that would see the Americans retaliate against the militants, Sudani requested the Iranian authorities put pressure on the militias to stop their attacks on U.S. soldiers in Iraq, the lawmaker claimed.

The lawmaker said, “The officials told him that the militias in Iraq made their own decisions and Tehran wouldn’t meddle in the situation there.”

Iran has called the Israeli military’s retaliation attack on Gaza a genocide and threatened to “spain this fire” on the United States if it continues. The Hezbollah organization in Lebanon, which is supported by Tehran and is rumored to have obtained potent Russian anti-ship missiles, has issued a dire warning to Washington that it would suffer greatly in a regional conflict.

“LAUGHING IN TEHRAN AT US”
With constant updates on fighting in the area, Biden must deal with his problems. Iranian-aligned Houthi forces launched 15 drones and four cruise missiles off the coast of Yemen in recent weeks, among other strikes outside of Iraq and Syria. A U.S. Navy destroyer carrying hundreds of sailors shot down the drones, according to U.S. military authorities.

After years of the United States gradually withdrawing its air defenses and other military assets from the Middle East, the current crisis has broken out as Washington tries to concentrate on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and growing tensions with China. Following Biden’s total withdrawal from Afghanistan and the Taliban’s takeover there two years ago, this emphasis gained momentum.

Biden’s response has been cautious thus far; last month, he issued orders for nocturnal strikes on two unoccupied weapons storage locations in Syria connected to Iran, but he has not issued any orders for strikes in Iraq. U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin issued a warning on Wednesday after Biden carried out a similar strike in Syria, saying, “We urge against any escalation.”

Biden and other officials have refrained from disclosing just what they would do in reaction to Iranian-backed organizations that they believe are spreading the violence throughout the region, particularly the sizable Hezbollah movement in Lebanon.

TTo deter a significant attack, the United States sent out two aircraft carrier strike groups and, over the weekend, made the unusual announcement that an Ohio-class submarine had arrived in the area.

Officials said that the U.S. military is taking further precautions to safeguard its tens of thousands of personnel in the region and deploying air defenses like the Patriot and high-altitude systems.

According to them, the steps include stepping up security at American military installations in the area by stepping up patrols, limiting access, and collecting information.

Many of Biden’s detractors, especially Republicans in Congress, feel that the Democratic senator from Maryland has not responded forcefully enough to the issue.

Republican Senator Tom Cotton, a Senate Armed Services Committee member, remarked, “They are laughing at us in Tehran.” “Iran will continue to target Americans until President Biden gets serious about imposing severe costs on Iran.”

Republican Senator Lindsey Graham questioned Austin many times on October 31 during a hearing, seeking an answer on whether the deaths of American service members would lead to direct action against Iran. With a stutter, Austin stated that Iran has to be made “accountable.”

“I wish you would be more clear, because if one of these soldiers is killed…” Graham paused to give his statement impact.

Some people find the recent attacks on American troops to be heartbreaking reminders of the giant truck bomb in Beirut last month, which destroyed a Marine barracks and killed 241 American service personnel 40 years ago. Hezbollah has denied any role in the suicide attack, but the U.S. still holds the group accountable.

The 1983 explosion struck David Madaras, a 22-year-old Marine, with a concussive wave. He feels uneasy as he remembers searching through the debris where some of his friends were interred and notices unsettling similarities to the present.

“We had rocket attacks, mortar attacks, before we got hit with the big bomb,” he stated. “Does history repeat itself?”

Geopolitics & Foreign Policy

Despair in Gaza as fighting intensifies despite Israel’s promise to scale back the war.

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Israeli bombings in southern and central Gaza escalated on Wednesday, despite a commitment by Israel that it would withdraw some forces and transition to a more focused assault, as well as a beg from its partner Washington to decrease the number of civilian fatalities.

The Houthi movement in Yemen, which claims it is acting to help Gaza, launched the most significant strike to date against United States and British warships in the Red Sea. This is the most recent indication that the war, which has been going on for three months, is spreading. Both Washington and London have reported that they were successful in shooting down 21 missiles and drones that were intended for maritime channels. Nobody was wounded in the incident.

Following weeks of pressure from the United States to reduce its operations and transition to what Washington considers to be a more focused campaign, Israel said this week that it intended to begin bringing down forces, at least from the northern portion of Gaza.

However, it seems that the combat is as ferocious as it has ever been, particularly in the southern and central regions, which are the places where Israeli troops made ground gains a month ago.

In response to security concerns, the World Health Organization (WHO) decided to cancel a scheduled medical aid mission to Gaza. This is the sixth time in the past two weeks that such a mission has been canceled.

When an Israeli attack occurred on the major road near Deir al-Balah in the central Gaza Strip, the Palestinian Red Crescent reported that four of its employees were murdered. The strike occurred on the ambulance that they were riding in. The ambulance was carrying two people who were injured and eventually passed away.

More than 23,000 Palestinians have been murdered in Gaza since Israel began its effort to eliminate the Hamas terrorist group that rules the territory. This comes after Hamas members carried out a rampage on October 7 that resulted in the deaths of 1,200 Israelis and the abduction of 240 captives who were held captive.

Gaza’s health officials have calculated that almost forty percent of those who were murdered were under the age of eighteen.

Having lost their family home in an air attack that resulted in the death of their father, Laila al-Sultan, who is seven years old, and her brother Khaled, who is four years old, are currently residing in a tent shanty town in the southern region of Gaza.

“The house collapsed on us, and Daddy went to heaven, and he is very happy,” Khaled remarked as he bounced up and down on Laila’s lap. “The house collapsed on us.”

WARNING FROM HOUTHI

Antony Blinken, the Secretary of State of the United States of America, made his fourth trip to the area since the beginning of the conflict. On Wednesday, he traveled to Ramallah and met with Palestinian officials, including Mahmoud Abbas, the President of the Palestinian Authority (PA), in the West Bank, which is under Israeli occupation.

Even though it recognizes Israel’s right to exist and exercises limited self-rule in the West Bank, the Palestinian Authority (PA) lost control of Gaza in 2007. Hamas, which is committed to the destruction of Israel, took control of Gaza.

Blinken reportedly voiced his support for the establishment of a Palestinian state, emphasized the efforts being made to safeguard and assist people in Gaza, and advocated for “administrative reforms” to be implemented by the Palestinian Authority.

The Palestinian Authority (PA) said that Abbas advised Blinken that no Palestinians should be relocated from Gaza or the West Bank.

Furthermore, Blinken has spoken with officials from Israel and traveled to Arab governments in the vicinity to hunt for a potential settlement for the Gaza Strip and its population of 2.3 million people.

The meeting between Jordan’s King Abdullah and Egyptian President Abdel Fatah al-Sisi occurred in Aqaba on Wednesday. During the meeting, Jordan and Egypt issued a warning against any reoccupation of the Gaza Strip by Israel and made a request that inhabitants who had been uprooted be allowed to return to their homes.

Washington is concerned that the conflict in Gaza might spread bloodshed throughout the region, with armed organizations supported by Iran, Israel’s most opposed nation, unleashing strikes in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen in sympathy with Israel.

The Houthis, who control the majority of Yemen, have been bombing one of the busiest shipping routes in the world, which is located at the mouth of the Red Sea. As a result, the United States government has been forced to send warships to provide security.

According to a spokesman for the Houthi military, the group fired a large number of missiles and drones at a United States ship that was providing support to Israel. The spokesman referred to the attack as a “preliminary response” to an incident that occurred on New Year’s Eve, in which United States helicopters sank three boats carrying Houthi fighters who attempted to board a commercial vessel.

According to Blinken, who made this statement when he was in Bahrain, which was the next stop on his journey, there would be repercussions for ongoing attacks on commercial vessels.

“We’ve also repeatedly tried to make clear to Iran, as other countries have, that the support that they’re providing to the Houthis, including for these actions, needs to stop,” he said to reporters.

The no-let-up

Despite Israel’s public declarations since the New Year that it is reducing the intensity of the battle, the inhabitants of Gaza claim that they have not witnessed any reduction in the conflict. There has been at least one instance of the whole community being evicted from their houses, with many people being relocated many times as Israeli soldiers continue to advance.

The bodies of fifteen members of the Nofal family were laid out at a hospital morgue in Rafah, which is located on the southern fringe of the enclave. After an Israeli air strike overnight destroyed their home, the victims were there. Relatives wailed as they stared at the bodies.

The majority of the white shrouds were tiny, and they contained children. Um Ahmed, a mother of five now taking refuge in a tent near Rafah, stated that Gazans had anticipated Blinken’s presence would signal they would be allowed to return to their homes.

It is comparable to words written in butter, since it vanished as soon as the sun rose in the sky. She said, “Those were Blinken’s words, and they were fake.”

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Geopolitics & Foreign Policy

The Maldives upgrades ties with China amid pivot from India.

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The Maldives upgraded ties with China amid a pivot from India. Following a campaign in which he painted China’s regional rival India as a danger to sovereignty, newly elected President Mohamed Muizzu of the Maldives boosted ties with China on Wednesday on his first state visit to Beijing.

Speaking at the Great Hall of the People, Chinese President Xi Jinping referred to Muizzu as “an old friend” as the Asian behemoth agreed to a “comprehensive strategic cooperative partnership,” opening the door for more investment in the Indian Ocean archipelago.

Xi told Muizzu, “China and the Maldives’ relations are facing a historic opportunity to carry forward the past and forge ahead into the future,” according to Chinese official media.

After winning on his “India Out” platform, whereby he described New Delhi’s enormous influence as a danger to sovereignty, Muizzu assumed office in November. Despite being deeply indebted to Beijing, his administration has recently requested hundreds of Indian military troops stationed locally to leave while promoting opportunities for Chinese businesses.

Following a military skirmish in the western Himalayas in June 2020 that claimed the lives of 20 Indian and 4 Chinese soldiers, ties between the two countries plummeted.

China is paving the way for more investment in a region where India has already witnessed another neighbor, Sri Lanka, move closer to China by strengthening its relations with the Maldives.

Following the meeting, his presidential office said that “20 key agreements between the two countries” had been signed. “During the talks, President Dr. Muizzu expressed gratitude for China’s significant role in the Maldives’ economic success and infrastructure development,” the statement said.

According to World Bank data, the Maldives owes China $1.37 billion, or around 20% of its public debt, which puts Beijing ahead of Saudi Arabia and India, which owe $124 million and $123 million, respectively, as its largest bilateral creditors.

According to statistics from the American Enterprise Institute think tank, since the Maldives decided to join the Belt and Road Initiative in 2014, Chinese companies have made additional investments in the country totaling $1.37 billion.

According to official media, Xi stated, “China firmly supports the Maldives in safeguarding its national sovereignty, independence, and national dignity.” Plus, according to Xinhua, Beijing would be open to “exchanging experience of state governance” with Male.

Before meeting with Xi, Muizzu was shown a video on X, formerly known as Twitter, via his presidential office account. The video showed him touring the Chinese Communist Party Museum in Beijing.

In an October development assessment on the Maldives, the World Bank cautioned that further cozying up to China may be problematic since there was a “lack of domestic investment opportunities” and a “build-up of sovereign exposure” during the epidemic.

Xi stated that he supported more direct flights between the two nations, which might benefit the Maldives’ travel and tourist industry, which the Asian Development Bank estimates would account for 79% of the country’s economic development in 2022.

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Ecuador’s president says the country is at war as gangs hold prison staff hostage.

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Daniel Noboa, the president of Ecuador, declared on Wednesday that his nation was “at war” with criminal gangs that had over 130 jail guards and other employees as hostages. He momentarily took over a TV station via live broadcast and detonated explosives in a wave of violence that has left significant streets desolate.

On Tuesday, Noboa designated 22 gangs as terrorist groups, designating them as recognized military targets. Upon assuming office in November, the president committed to addressing the escalating security issue stemming from an increase in drug-trafficking organizations smuggling cocaine via Ecuador.

Noboa declared on Wednesday, “We are at war and we cannot cede in the face of these terrorist groups.” Noboa declared a 60-day state of emergency in response to the hostage-takings, which started in the small hours of Monday, and the alleged weekend escape of Los Choneros gang boss Adolfo Macias from jail.

On Tuesday, following a string of explosions around the nation and a spectacular live-streamed takeover of a TV station by gunmen, he tightened the edict.

The government claims that Noboa’s proposal to construct two new, high-security prisons for gang leaders is the reason for the violence, and Noboa informed the radio station that the designs for the two new institutions will be revealed to the public tomorrow.

Noboa declared, “We are doing everything in our power to free all of the hostages,” adding that the military had assumed control of the rescue operation. “We are doing everything possible, and the impossible, to get them safe and sound.”

According to the SNAI prisons agency, 125 captives are guards, while the remaining 14 are administrative employees. It stated that eleven individuals were let go on Tuesday.

Social media users posted videos of prison staff members being shot and hanged, among other acts of horrific cruelty. Reuters could not immediately confirm the validity of the films. According to Noboa, the nation will start deporting foreign inmates this week, particularly those from Colombia, to lower the jail population and costs.

Approximately 1,500 individuals from Colombia are incarcerated in Ecuador, according to Noboa, who also stated that 90% of foreign inmates are from Colombia, Peru, and Venezuela.

Colombian legislation requires that repatriations be evaluated on a case-by-case basis and predicated on inmates’ petitions. Despite this, Colombia’s justice minister stated on local radio on Tuesday that he was eager to negotiate with Ecuador.

Like many other Latin American nations, Colombia has supported the Ecuadorian government. On Wednesday, the country said it would strengthen its military presence and control along their shared border, which spans over 600 kilometers (370 miles).

PERMANENT VIOLENCE

Noboa told the radio station that ensuring the rule of law and enhancing security would be the best ways to protect the economy and foreign investment.

On Tuesday, lawmakers endorsed Noboa’s initiatives and supported the armed forces. After his party formed alliances with a Christian party and the socialist movement of former President Rafael Correa, Noboa now leads a majority coalition in Congress.

Noboa stated, “I have asked for their support, but I don’t need their approval right now for what we are doing,” about the decrees. On Wednesday morning, Noboa also had a meeting in Quito with ambassadors to Ecuador.

The police reported on Wednesday that since Monday, there have been 70 arrests about various incidents, including the seizure of the TV station.

Four police officers are still being detained after criminals allegedly abducted them between Monday and Tuesday. Late on Tuesday, three more cops were released. The police were identifying the three victims found in a burned-out car overnight south of the capital and adding that there was still violence in Guayaquil, the country’s largest city.

On Tuesday, armed individuals killed two police officers in the province of Guayas, where Guayaquil is located. The cops did not offer any more information. On Wednesday morning, many shops were closed, leaving the streets of Quito and Guayaquil quiet.

A major Chinese investor in Ecuador said that the Chinese embassy and consulates would be temporarily shuttered. All around the country, schools were closed, but courses continued digitally. Locals reported feeling as though pandemic lockdowns were again in place.

“The streets are very empty; it’s horrible,” forty-year-old Rodolfo Tuaz, a security guard in Guayaquil, said. “It’s a frigid environment, as if there were a new COVID.”

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