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Democracy & Elections

US broadly eases Venezuela oil sanctions after election deal.

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In response to an agreement between the government and opposition groups for the 2024 elections, the Biden administration substantially relaxed sanctions on Venezuela’s oil industry on Wednesday. This was the largest reduction of Trump-era restrictions on Caracas.

The U.S. Treasury Department issued a new general license allowing Venezuela, an OPEC member subject to crippling sanctions since 2019, to produce and export oil to its chosen markets without limitations for the following six months.

The United States hailed President Nicolas Maduro’s electoral concessions. Still, Secretary of State Antony Blinken noted that Washington had given him until the end of November to remove restrictions on opposition presidential candidates and free political prisoners and “wrongfully detained” Americans.

Under the condition of anonymity, a senior State Department official threatened to roll back sanctions relief measures if Maduro didn’t do this.

The U.S. actions come after months of discussions in which Washington pressured Caracas for real steps toward democratic elections in exchange for easing some of the severe sanctions imposed by the previous U.S. president, Donald Trump, but not all of them.

Additionally, it marks a dramatic change from President Trump’s “maximum pressure” campaign against the socialist government regarding President Joe Biden’s administration’s greater interaction with Maduro on subjects ranging from energy migration.

Jorge Rodriguez, a member of Venezuela’s governing party and the head of the government’s negotiating delegation in negotiations with the opposition, declared on state television later that day that lifting the sanctions covered all oil-related activity.

“The possibility of any person or company coming to Venezuela to invest is totally open,” he stated.

A deal on electoral assurances for a referendum to be conducted in the second half of 2024 under international supervision was agreed on Tuesday in Barbados between the Maduro administration and the opposition. However, the agreement did not include Maduro’s consent to let opposition candidates disqualified for office run again.

The United States was acting, according to Blinken, “consistent with our longstanding commitment to provide U.S. sanctions relief in response to concrete steps toward competitive elections and respect for human rights and fundamental freedoms.”

The measures on Wednesday lessened some of the harshest sanctions that Venezuela had been subject to, but they still left several other limitations in place.

Nevertheless, the U.S. actions may allow hundreds of oil corporations that have halted or scaled back operations in Venezuela to enter the country again.

Following Maduro’s reelection in 2018, which the United States and other Western nations denounced as a fraud, the U.S. slapped severe sanctions on Venezuela to punish the Maduro administration. U.S. sanctions have made it illegal for the government-run oil corporation PDVSA to export to the targeted markets since 2019.

VENEZUELAN OIL SECTOR IN TROUBLE
One of the changes announced on Wednesday is a six-month general license allowing the production, sale, and export of Venezuelan crude and gas without restrictions on customers or destinations. Another general license allowing transactions with Minerven, the country’s state-owned gold mining company, is another.

However, the U.S. Treasury Department stated that it was ready to cancel such authorizations at any moment if Maduro’s officials broke their promises in the agreement with the opposition.

Although there is still a ban on trading in the primary Venezuelan bond market, the Treasury has lifted the secondary trading restrictions on some Venezuelan government bonds and the debt and equity of the state-run oil corporation PDVSA.

To lower the high prices brought on by sanctions against Russia and OPEC+’s agreements to cut production, the U.S. has been looking for methods to increase global oil flows.

Without a significant investment increase in the nation’s devastated oil sector, oil industry analysts said there is little prospect that Venezuela’s exports could make up for such reductions.

State-run PDVSA is anticipated to be hindered in its efforts to quickly return to cash-paying oil markets and provide its crude at competitive pricing due to two decades of poor management and insufficient investment, as well as U.S. oil sanctions in place since 2019.

The first talks between the government and the opposition in over a year were conducted on Tuesday to find a solution to Venezuela’s protracted political and economic crisis. They consented to meet again at an undisclosed time.

The agreement they announced said that each side may select its 2024 candidate by its internal procedures. Still, it did not lift all of the restrictions on some opposition leaders, including the front-runner in the Oct. 22 primary, Maria Corina Machado, that prevent them from holding office.

According to sources inside the opposition, they are still working to lift such prohibitions.

Democracy & Elections

Thousands protested in Belgrade to demand the annulment of elections.

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Thousands protested in Belgrade to demand the annulment of elections. An anti-government demonstration took place on Sunday in the central business district of Belgrade. The demonstration aimed to demand the annulment of the unfair parliamentary and local elections a week ago.

According to early findings from the state election commission, the populist Serbian Progressive Party (SNS), now in power, received 46.72 percent of the votes cast in the snap parliamentary elections over the weekend.

A monitoring mission from the international community stated on Monday that the Social Networking Service (SNS) had obtained an unfair advantage due to prejudice in the media, unlawful influence from President Aleksandar Vucic, and voting irregularities such as vote-buying.

Vucic stated that the elections were conducted legally. A witness who spoke to Reuters claimed that the police used pepper spray on Sunday when a crowd attempted to break into the town hall in Belgrade, which houses the city’s local election commission. A few of the demonstrators scaled the stairs of the building and shattered the glass. People hurled stones at windows, causing the glass to shatter.

Demonstrators screamed, “Vucic thief,” again. The Ministry of the Interior issued a statement that urged demonstrators to “refrain from breaking into the town hall.”

“By reacting calmly, we are trying not to hurt protesters,” Vucic stated in the message in the early evening. In the election, the Socialist Party of Serbia came in third with 6.56% of the vote. In contrast, the opposition alliance Serbia Against Violence, a center-left coalition, came in second place with 23.56% of the vote.

While the audience yelled, “Get in, get in,” and “No surrender,” Srdjan Milivojevic and Vladimir Obradovic, members of the Serbia Against Violence coalition, attempted to open the town hall entrance but were unsuccessful. These individuals were unable to enter the building.

At around ten o’clock (2100 GMT), the anti-riot police moved protesters away from the town hall. Marinika Tepic, another Serbia Against Violence organization member, has been on a hunger strike since the elections.

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Democracy & Elections

In sea change for Poland, a new government is sworn in.

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The President of Poland swore in the new administration under Prime Minister Donald Tusk on Wednesday. This was the final stage in a power transfer that, after eight years of nationalist control, represented a significant shift in the country’s political landscape.

When Tusk was appointed, there were years of disagreements between Warsaw and Brussels under the previous administration, led by the Law and Justice (PiS) party. The selection of Tusk has increased expectations that ties with the rest of the European Union will become more harmonious.

Tusk, a moderate who served as president of the European Council from 2014 to 2019, claimed to obtain billions of euros for Poland in a speech he delivered to the Polish parliament on Tuesday. The EU has frozen these billions of euros due to concerns about the rule of law during his tenure as president of the European Council.

Both the authority to veto bills held by President Andrzej Duda, an ally of the PiS and the fact that judges were nominated under PiS changes that opponents say weakened the independence of the courts might make his work more difficult.

In the past, Duda has expressed his disapproval of Tusk in a manner that is quite critical; nevertheless, on Wednesday, after the swearing-in ceremony, he adopted a constructive and conciliatory tone.

“Please be aware that I am open to cooperation,” stated the president. “We come from different political camps, but I have found out that on important issues, such as security, we can come to an understanding.”

According to Tusk, who is 66 years old, his administration will prioritize the restoration of the rule of law and respecting the Constitution. Additionally, his government considers Duda partially accountable for policies that it believes have harmed the independence of the judiciary.

“Faithfulness to the provisions of the constitution will be the trademark of our government,” Tusk stated, adding that he believed the desire of voters to see the rule of law re-established was the reason for the record turnout in an election on October 15th.

THE IMMINENT CHALLENGES
Although they were victorious in the election, they lacked the required majority to form a government. This enabled Tusk to form a government, which parliament subsequently approved on Tuesday.

An example of the difficulties that Tusk will have to deal with is the decision that Poland’s Constitutional Tribunal made on Monday, which said that the judicial reform legislation that Poland needed to approve to gain access to EU money contradicted the constitution.

It came to the same judgment regarding the fines imposed by the highest court in the European Union (EU) before it reached a final ruling, referred to as interim measures.

Spending at the eleventh hour by the previous administration has also contributed to the stress on the budget, making it more difficult for Tusk to fulfill his commitments during the campaign.

In preparation for the European Union meeting that will take place on Thursday and Friday, Tusk is anticipated to fly to Brussels.

Additionally, Tusk will lend his support to Ukraine’s effort to eventually become a member of the bloc, in addition to his efforts to unlock finances for Poland.

Tusk stated on Tuesday that Poland will lobby for continuous support, which comes at a time when Kyiv is becoming increasingly concerned about the commitment of its Western friends to supporting its defense against Russia’s incursion.

The potential exists that Hungary would not provide the go-ahead for Ukraine to begin EU membership discussions at a conference in Brussels. This would be a disappointing development for Ukraine.

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Democracy & Elections

Taiwan vote must be free from ‘outside interference,’ senior US diplomat says

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“Outside interference” must be avoided during Taiwan’s election in 2024, according to the senior diplomat of the United States in Taipei, who stated on Monday that the United States’ stance toward the island will stay the same regardless of who wins.

During the presidential and parliamentary elections that will take place on January 13, Taiwan’s relations with its neighbors might be defined by the results of these elections. President Tsai Ing-wen and other authorities have warned that China may attempt to influence voters in favor of candidates who desire stronger ties with Beijing.

However, even though diplomatic relations with the Chinese-claimed island have been severed, the United States continues to be Taiwan’s most significant international backer and weaponry supplier.

In a lecture that she delivered at National Taiwan University, Sandra Oudkirk, who is the director of the American Institute in Taiwan and the de facto representative of the United States in Taiwan, they were stated that the United States has a great deal of faith in Taiwan’s democratic system and election procedures.

“We believe it is for the Taiwan voters to decide their next leader, free from outside interference,” stated the politician.

“And as I have said many times before, the United States is not taking sides in Taiwan’s election, we do not have a preferred candidate and we know very well that we do not have a vote,” according to Oudkirk. “We support Taiwan’s vibrant democracy and look forward to working with whichever leaders Taiwan voters elect in 2024.”

According to the results of popular opinion surveys, Lai Ching-te, presently serving as vice president and a member of the Democratic Progressive Party, is the leading candidate to become Taiwan’s next leader. China has rejected several of Lai’s invitations for negotiations because of China’s strong distaste for him and its belief that he is a separatist.

Lai’s primary adversary is Hou Yu-ih, a member of Taiwan’s major opposition party, the Kuomintang. This party has always supported tight connections with China. Still, it vehemently rejects being pro-Beijing and asserts that it will continue to preserve its close relationship with the United States.

The Chinese government has increased the amount of military pressure it exerted against Taiwan over the previous four years. This includes conducting two rounds of massive war exercises near the island in the past year and a half.

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