Geopolitics & Foreign Policy
Iran enriches more uranium as Gaza war rages, US vote looms.
There are not many paths available for the United States and its allies to take to rein in Iran’s nuclear activity since the possibilities for discussions have long since been buried, and more severe moves against Tehran run the danger of fueling tensions in a region that the Gaza conflict has already inflamed.
Four current and three former diplomats presented a grim image of attempts to halt Iran’s nuclear program, which, according to reports from the United Nations atomic watchdog, continues to develop. This comes when an election in the United States is scheduled for the following year, reducing the space for maneuver by Washington.
The diplomats agreed to speak to Reuters under the condition that they remain anonymous.
Iran currently possesses enough uranium enriched to a purity of up to 60%, according to one of the two classified studies produced by the International Atomic Energy Agency and reviewed by Reuters. This level of enrichment is considered to be close to weapons grade and is at a level that Western nations assert has no civilian value.
The allegations indicate that the stockpile is continuing to expand despite Iran’s repeated denials that it is interested in developing nuclear weapons.
As a result of President Joe Biden’s failure to revive a nuclear deal between Iran and world powers that was abandoned by former U.S. President Donald Trump in 2018, there is no room, for now, even to consider a more informal “understanding” to curb Iran’s nuclear work with a conflict raging in the region and tensions spiraling upwards.
According to a senior European official, “there is a sort of paralysis,” particularly among the Americans, “because they don’t want to add fuel to the fire.”
Any discussions establishing an “understanding” with Iran would have required Washington to make concessions, such as reducing its strict sanctions system on Tehran, in exchange for Iranian restraint. This would have been the case in any attempt to reach an “understanding” with Iran.
After the deadly attack that the Iranian-backed Palestinian organization Hamas carried out on American ally Israel on October 7, such a step now appears to be entirely out of the question. According to the Pentagon, Iran’s regional proxy militias have carried out hundreds of attacks on United States and coalition soldiers in Iraq and Syria since that time. These attacks took place in both countries.
The next presidential elections in the United States are now less than a year away, which places the Biden administration under significant constraints at home. It is possible that Trump, who at the moment appears to be Biden’s most likely opponent, will jump on any interaction with Tehran and depict it as a sign of weakness on Biden’s part.
Robert Einhorn, a former official in the United States Department of State, was quoted as saying that “in the current environment, it is simply not politically feasible to seek an accommodation with Iran on the nuclear issue.”
“The political debate is really not going to be about negotiating with Iran, it’s going to be about confronting Iran,” added the politician.
THE STONEWALLING OF IRAN IAEA
In part as a message to Tehran, the United States government has sent two aircraft carriers and fighters to the eastern Mediterranean region. But officials from the United States have also made it plain that they do not want an escalation, and they have urged militias supported by Iran to stand down.
The United States of America and its allies in France, Britain, and Germany, which were among the participants in the nuclear deal in 2015, will now concentrate their efforts on the IAEA Board of Governors meeting the following week.
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) released data earlier this week that indicated Iran was making consistent progress in its nuclear program and that Tehran continued to stonewall the agency in monitoring its activities.
The agreement reached in March to re-install monitoring equipment, including surveillance cameras removed at Iran’s request the previous year, has only been partially honored. Iran requested that the equipment be withdrawn.
The “de-designation” by Tehran in September of some of the agency’s most experienced inspectors, a step that essentially prohibits them from operating in Iran, has further aggravated the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).
In September, Western nations made the threat to approve a binding resolution ordering Iran to change its behavior. This resolution would have been one of the harshest penalties available to the IAEA board at the time.
It was vital to prevent a diplomatic and nuclear escalation with Iran. At the same time, attention is focused on Israel’s dispute with Hamas, according to four diplomats, who stated that it is now doubtful that a settlement will be reached because of this.
They suggested that a move that would cause less controversy, such as a stern but non-binding statement threatening more severe action at the upcoming board meeting in March, would be the most likely option for now.
“We can’t have a resolution,” the senior European official added. “If we were to pass a resolution… it risks pushing them (the Iranians) over the edge… to 90% enrichment.”
The purity of uranium used for making weapons averages approximately 90%.
Two diplomats have stated that in the upcoming months, the only thing that can be done is to back the efforts of Rafael Grossi, the chief of the IAEA, to improve control of Iran’s nuclear program. Before the end of the year, he wants to reclassify all of his inspectors into a different category.
“It’s way too early to say whether Iran will become a nuclear state or whether it will stay a threshold state like now,” a senior diplomatic official stated. “But for now, it will keep enriching.”
Geopolitics & Foreign Policy
Despair in Gaza as fighting intensifies despite Israel’s promise to scale back the war.
Israeli bombings in southern and central Gaza escalated on Wednesday, despite a commitment by Israel that it would withdraw some forces and transition to a more focused assault, as well as a beg from its partner Washington to decrease the number of civilian fatalities.
The Houthi movement in Yemen, which claims it is acting to help Gaza, launched the most significant strike to date against United States and British warships in the Red Sea. This is the most recent indication that the war, which has been going on for three months, is spreading. Both Washington and London have reported that they were successful in shooting down 21 missiles and drones that were intended for maritime channels. Nobody was wounded in the incident.
Following weeks of pressure from the United States to reduce its operations and transition to what Washington considers to be a more focused campaign, Israel said this week that it intended to begin bringing down forces, at least from the northern portion of Gaza.
However, it seems that the combat is as ferocious as it has ever been, particularly in the southern and central regions, which are the places where Israeli troops made ground gains a month ago.
In response to security concerns, the World Health Organization (WHO) decided to cancel a scheduled medical aid mission to Gaza. This is the sixth time in the past two weeks that such a mission has been canceled.
When an Israeli attack occurred on the major road near Deir al-Balah in the central Gaza Strip, the Palestinian Red Crescent reported that four of its employees were murdered. The strike occurred on the ambulance that they were riding in. The ambulance was carrying two people who were injured and eventually passed away.
More than 23,000 Palestinians have been murdered in Gaza since Israel began its effort to eliminate the Hamas terrorist group that rules the territory. This comes after Hamas members carried out a rampage on October 7 that resulted in the deaths of 1,200 Israelis and the abduction of 240 captives who were held captive.
Gaza’s health officials have calculated that almost forty percent of those who were murdered were under the age of eighteen.
Having lost their family home in an air attack that resulted in the death of their father, Laila al-Sultan, who is seven years old, and her brother Khaled, who is four years old, are currently residing in a tent shanty town in the southern region of Gaza.
“The house collapsed on us, and Daddy went to heaven, and he is very happy,” Khaled remarked as he bounced up and down on Laila’s lap. “The house collapsed on us.”
WARNING FROM HOUTHI
Antony Blinken, the Secretary of State of the United States of America, made his fourth trip to the area since the beginning of the conflict. On Wednesday, he traveled to Ramallah and met with Palestinian officials, including Mahmoud Abbas, the President of the Palestinian Authority (PA), in the West Bank, which is under Israeli occupation.
Even though it recognizes Israel’s right to exist and exercises limited self-rule in the West Bank, the Palestinian Authority (PA) lost control of Gaza in 2007. Hamas, which is committed to the destruction of Israel, took control of Gaza.
Blinken reportedly voiced his support for the establishment of a Palestinian state, emphasized the efforts being made to safeguard and assist people in Gaza, and advocated for “administrative reforms” to be implemented by the Palestinian Authority.
The Palestinian Authority (PA) said that Abbas advised Blinken that no Palestinians should be relocated from Gaza or the West Bank.
Furthermore, Blinken has spoken with officials from Israel and traveled to Arab governments in the vicinity to hunt for a potential settlement for the Gaza Strip and its population of 2.3 million people.
The meeting between Jordan’s King Abdullah and Egyptian President Abdel Fatah al-Sisi occurred in Aqaba on Wednesday. During the meeting, Jordan and Egypt issued a warning against any reoccupation of the Gaza Strip by Israel and made a request that inhabitants who had been uprooted be allowed to return to their homes.
Washington is concerned that the conflict in Gaza might spread bloodshed throughout the region, with armed organizations supported by Iran, Israel’s most opposed nation, unleashing strikes in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen in sympathy with Israel.
The Houthis, who control the majority of Yemen, have been bombing one of the busiest shipping routes in the world, which is located at the mouth of the Red Sea. As a result, the United States government has been forced to send warships to provide security.
According to a spokesman for the Houthi military, the group fired a large number of missiles and drones at a United States ship that was providing support to Israel. The spokesman referred to the attack as a “preliminary response” to an incident that occurred on New Year’s Eve, in which United States helicopters sank three boats carrying Houthi fighters who attempted to board a commercial vessel.
According to Blinken, who made this statement when he was in Bahrain, which was the next stop on his journey, there would be repercussions for ongoing attacks on commercial vessels.
“We’ve also repeatedly tried to make clear to Iran, as other countries have, that the support that they’re providing to the Houthis, including for these actions, needs to stop,” he said to reporters.
The no-let-up
Despite Israel’s public declarations since the New Year that it is reducing the intensity of the battle, the inhabitants of Gaza claim that they have not witnessed any reduction in the conflict. There has been at least one instance of the whole community being evicted from their houses, with many people being relocated many times as Israeli soldiers continue to advance.
The bodies of fifteen members of the Nofal family were laid out at a hospital morgue in Rafah, which is located on the southern fringe of the enclave. After an Israeli air strike overnight destroyed their home, the victims were there. Relatives wailed as they stared at the bodies.
The majority of the white shrouds were tiny, and they contained children. Um Ahmed, a mother of five now taking refuge in a tent near Rafah, stated that Gazans had anticipated Blinken’s presence would signal they would be allowed to return to their homes.
It is comparable to words written in butter, since it vanished as soon as the sun rose in the sky. She said, “Those were Blinken’s words, and they were fake.”
Geopolitics & Foreign Policy
The Maldives upgrades ties with China amid pivot from India.
The Maldives upgraded ties with China amid a pivot from India. Following a campaign in which he painted China’s regional rival India as a danger to sovereignty, newly elected President Mohamed Muizzu of the Maldives boosted ties with China on Wednesday on his first state visit to Beijing.
Speaking at the Great Hall of the People, Chinese President Xi Jinping referred to Muizzu as “an old friend” as the Asian behemoth agreed to a “comprehensive strategic cooperative partnership,” opening the door for more investment in the Indian Ocean archipelago.
Xi told Muizzu, “China and the Maldives’ relations are facing a historic opportunity to carry forward the past and forge ahead into the future,” according to Chinese official media.
After winning on his “India Out” platform, whereby he described New Delhi’s enormous influence as a danger to sovereignty, Muizzu assumed office in November. Despite being deeply indebted to Beijing, his administration has recently requested hundreds of Indian military troops stationed locally to leave while promoting opportunities for Chinese businesses.
Following a military skirmish in the western Himalayas in June 2020 that claimed the lives of 20 Indian and 4 Chinese soldiers, ties between the two countries plummeted.
China is paving the way for more investment in a region where India has already witnessed another neighbor, Sri Lanka, move closer to China by strengthening its relations with the Maldives.
Following the meeting, his presidential office said that “20 key agreements between the two countries” had been signed. “During the talks, President Dr. Muizzu expressed gratitude for China’s significant role in the Maldives’ economic success and infrastructure development,” the statement said.
According to World Bank data, the Maldives owes China $1.37 billion, or around 20% of its public debt, which puts Beijing ahead of Saudi Arabia and India, which owe $124 million and $123 million, respectively, as its largest bilateral creditors.
According to statistics from the American Enterprise Institute think tank, since the Maldives decided to join the Belt and Road Initiative in 2014, Chinese companies have made additional investments in the country totaling $1.37 billion.
According to official media, Xi stated, “China firmly supports the Maldives in safeguarding its national sovereignty, independence, and national dignity.” Plus, according to Xinhua, Beijing would be open to “exchanging experience of state governance” with Male.
Before meeting with Xi, Muizzu was shown a video on X, formerly known as Twitter, via his presidential office account. The video showed him touring the Chinese Communist Party Museum in Beijing.
In an October development assessment on the Maldives, the World Bank cautioned that further cozying up to China may be problematic since there was a “lack of domestic investment opportunities” and a “build-up of sovereign exposure” during the epidemic.
Xi stated that he supported more direct flights between the two nations, which might benefit the Maldives’ travel and tourist industry, which the Asian Development Bank estimates would account for 79% of the country’s economic development in 2022.
Geopolitics & Foreign Policy
Ecuador’s president says the country is at war as gangs hold prison staff hostage.
Daniel Noboa, the president of Ecuador, declared on Wednesday that his nation was “at war” with criminal gangs that had over 130 jail guards and other employees as hostages. He momentarily took over a TV station via live broadcast and detonated explosives in a wave of violence that has left significant streets desolate.
On Tuesday, Noboa designated 22 gangs as terrorist groups, designating them as recognized military targets. Upon assuming office in November, the president committed to addressing the escalating security issue stemming from an increase in drug-trafficking organizations smuggling cocaine via Ecuador.
Noboa declared on Wednesday, “We are at war and we cannot cede in the face of these terrorist groups.” Noboa declared a 60-day state of emergency in response to the hostage-takings, which started in the small hours of Monday, and the alleged weekend escape of Los Choneros gang boss Adolfo Macias from jail.
On Tuesday, following a string of explosions around the nation and a spectacular live-streamed takeover of a TV station by gunmen, he tightened the edict.
The government claims that Noboa’s proposal to construct two new, high-security prisons for gang leaders is the reason for the violence, and Noboa informed the radio station that the designs for the two new institutions will be revealed to the public tomorrow.
Noboa declared, “We are doing everything in our power to free all of the hostages,” adding that the military had assumed control of the rescue operation. “We are doing everything possible, and the impossible, to get them safe and sound.”
According to the SNAI prisons agency, 125 captives are guards, while the remaining 14 are administrative employees. It stated that eleven individuals were let go on Tuesday.
Social media users posted videos of prison staff members being shot and hanged, among other acts of horrific cruelty. Reuters could not immediately confirm the validity of the films. According to Noboa, the nation will start deporting foreign inmates this week, particularly those from Colombia, to lower the jail population and costs.
Approximately 1,500 individuals from Colombia are incarcerated in Ecuador, according to Noboa, who also stated that 90% of foreign inmates are from Colombia, Peru, and Venezuela.
Colombian legislation requires that repatriations be evaluated on a case-by-case basis and predicated on inmates’ petitions. Despite this, Colombia’s justice minister stated on local radio on Tuesday that he was eager to negotiate with Ecuador.
Like many other Latin American nations, Colombia has supported the Ecuadorian government. On Wednesday, the country said it would strengthen its military presence and control along their shared border, which spans over 600 kilometers (370 miles).
PERMANENT VIOLENCE
Noboa told the radio station that ensuring the rule of law and enhancing security would be the best ways to protect the economy and foreign investment.
On Tuesday, lawmakers endorsed Noboa’s initiatives and supported the armed forces. After his party formed alliances with a Christian party and the socialist movement of former President Rafael Correa, Noboa now leads a majority coalition in Congress.
Noboa stated, “I have asked for their support, but I don’t need their approval right now for what we are doing,” about the decrees. On Wednesday morning, Noboa also had a meeting in Quito with ambassadors to Ecuador.
The police reported on Wednesday that since Monday, there have been 70 arrests about various incidents, including the seizure of the TV station.
Four police officers are still being detained after criminals allegedly abducted them between Monday and Tuesday. Late on Tuesday, three more cops were released. The police were identifying the three victims found in a burned-out car overnight south of the capital and adding that there was still violence in Guayaquil, the country’s largest city.
On Tuesday, armed individuals killed two police officers in the province of Guayas, where Guayaquil is located. The cops did not offer any more information. On Wednesday morning, many shops were closed, leaving the streets of Quito and Guayaquil quiet.
A major Chinese investor in Ecuador said that the Chinese embassy and consulates would be temporarily shuttered. All around the country, schools were closed, but courses continued digitally. Locals reported feeling as though pandemic lockdowns were again in place.
“The streets are very empty; it’s horrible,” forty-year-old Rodolfo Tuaz, a security guard in Guayaquil, said. “It’s a frigid environment, as if there were a new COVID.”