Iran enriches more uranium as Gaza war rages, US vote looms.

There are not many paths available for the United States and its allies to take to rein in Iran’s nuclear activity since the possibilities for discussions have long since been buried, and more severe moves against Tehran run the danger of fueling tensions in a region that the Gaza conflict has already inflamed.

Four current and three former diplomats presented a grim image of attempts to halt Iran’s nuclear program, which, according to reports from the United Nations atomic watchdog, continues to develop. This comes when an election in the United States is scheduled for the following year, reducing the space for maneuver by Washington.

The diplomats agreed to speak to Reuters under the condition that they remain anonymous.

Iran currently possesses enough uranium enriched to a purity of up to 60%, according to one of the two classified studies produced by the International Atomic Energy Agency and reviewed by Reuters. This level of enrichment is considered to be close to weapons grade and is at a level that Western nations assert has no civilian value.

The allegations indicate that the stockpile is continuing to expand despite Iran’s repeated denials that it is interested in developing nuclear weapons.

As a result of President Joe Biden’s failure to revive a nuclear deal between Iran and world powers that was abandoned by former U.S. President Donald Trump in 2018, there is no room, for now, even to consider a more informal “understanding” to curb Iran’s nuclear work with a conflict raging in the region and tensions spiraling upwards.

According to a senior European official, “there is a sort of paralysis,” particularly among the Americans, “because they don’t want to add fuel to the fire.”

Any discussions establishing an “understanding” with Iran would have required Washington to make concessions, such as reducing its strict sanctions system on Tehran, in exchange for Iranian restraint. This would have been the case in any attempt to reach an “understanding” with Iran.

After the deadly attack that the Iranian-backed Palestinian organization Hamas carried out on American ally Israel on October 7, such a step now appears to be entirely out of the question. According to the Pentagon, Iran’s regional proxy militias have carried out hundreds of attacks on United States and coalition soldiers in Iraq and Syria since that time. These attacks took place in both countries.

The next presidential elections in the United States are now less than a year away, which places the Biden administration under significant constraints at home. It is possible that Trump, who at the moment appears to be Biden’s most likely opponent, will jump on any interaction with Tehran and depict it as a sign of weakness on Biden’s part.

Robert Einhorn, a former official in the United States Department of State, was quoted as saying that “in the current environment, it is simply not politically feasible to seek an accommodation with Iran on the nuclear issue.”

“The political debate is really not going to be about negotiating with Iran, it’s going to be about confronting Iran,” added the politician.

THE STONEWALLING OF IRAN IAEA

In part as a message to Tehran, the United States government has sent two aircraft carriers and fighters to the eastern Mediterranean region. But officials from the United States have also made it plain that they do not want an escalation, and they have urged militias supported by Iran to stand down.

The United States of America and its allies in France, Britain, and Germany, which were among the participants in the nuclear deal in 2015, will now concentrate their efforts on the IAEA Board of Governors meeting the following week.

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) released data earlier this week that indicated Iran was making consistent progress in its nuclear program and that Tehran continued to stonewall the agency in monitoring its activities.

The agreement reached in March to re-install monitoring equipment, including surveillance cameras removed at Iran’s request the previous year, has only been partially honored. Iran requested that the equipment be withdrawn.

The “de-designation” by Tehran in September of some of the agency’s most experienced inspectors, a step that essentially prohibits them from operating in Iran, has further aggravated the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

In September, Western nations made the threat to approve a binding resolution ordering Iran to change its behavior. This resolution would have been one of the harshest penalties available to the IAEA board at the time.

It was vital to prevent a diplomatic and nuclear escalation with Iran. At the same time, attention is focused on Israel’s dispute with Hamas, according to four diplomats, who stated that it is now doubtful that a settlement will be reached because of this.

They suggested that a move that would cause less controversy, such as a stern but non-binding statement threatening more severe action at the upcoming board meeting in March, would be the most likely option for now.

“We can’t have a resolution,” the senior European official added. “If we were to pass a resolution… it risks pushing them (the Iranians) over the edge… to 90% enrichment.”

The purity of uranium used for making weapons averages approximately 90%.

Two diplomats have stated that in the upcoming months, the only thing that can be done is to back the efforts of Rafael Grossi, the chief of the IAEA, to improve control of Iran’s nuclear program. Before the end of the year, he wants to reclassify all of his inspectors into a different category.

“It’s way too early to say whether Iran will become a nuclear state or whether it will stay a threshold state like now,” a senior diplomatic official stated. “But for now, it will keep enriching.”