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Geopolitics & Foreign Policy

How the world agreed to move away from fossil fuels at COP28

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At the beginning of the COP28 climate summit in Dubai, there were all the components for a spectacular failure: it suggested an end to the age of fossil fuels at a meeting that was held in an Arab oil country, despite the fact that there was overt resistance from the major oil-producing club, OPEC.

An agreement that all 196 nations could live with required brilliant maneuvering on the part of the United Arab Emirates, which was hosting the meeting. Additionally, back-channel diplomacy from the top climate envoys of the United States and China was also necessary, according to Reuters’ sources.

According to the sources, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) chair of the Conference of the Parties (COP28) utilized a strategy during the two-week summit that consisted of providing purposefully provocative drafts for a settlement. The purpose of this strategy was to compel negotiators to expose the outer edges of their stances and establish common ground.

Using a personal connection that had been developing for twenty years, the top envoys from the two countries that are the most significant contributors to climate change, the United States and China, collaborated to find the appropriate language to explain the transition away from oil, gas, and coal throughout the world. They also succeeded in convincing the leaders of OPEC to join them.

There has been no earlier reporting on the specifics of the United Arab Emirates plan and the roles that the United States and China played in winning the contract.

Towards the conclusion of the meeting, which stretched into overtime and was marked by moments of near-crisis, negotiators emerged with an accord that called for “transitioning” away from fossil fuels. This was the first time in the history of the world that governments proclaimed a unified intention to put an end to the oil era.

As a concession to oil producers, including members of OPEC and their allies, the accord also included the provision of an alternative for the removal of the climatic effect caused by current oil, gas, and coal through the utilization of technology such as carbon capture and sequestration, which prevent greenhouse gases from being released into the environment.

Special Climate Envoy John Kerry of the United States of America referred to the agreement as a win for multilateralism, while President Sultan Al Jaber of the United Arab Emirates referred to it as “historic.”

A number of delegates, particularly the Alliance of Small Island States, expressed their displeasure with the pact’s loopholes that allowed for the continuing use of fossil fuels; nonetheless, in the end, they did not oppose the accord.

FROM LOW TO HIGH
Al Jaber, who also manages the state oil corporation of the United Arab Emirates (ADNOC), was criticized by environmental campaigners as an unreliable host for a climate discussion before to the summit.

However, he did not wish to supervise a meeting that was unsuccessful. Before the meeting, his staff released press releases trumpeting a statement by nations headed by the United States and the European Union to increase their capacity for renewable energy by the year 2030, as well as a cooperation agreement between the United States and China that was signed in California in November.

Many nations had traveled to Dubai to advocate for the inclusion of wording in a final agreement that would “phase out” fossil fuels. This was a proposition that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Nations was particularly opposed to.

OPEC, which owns eighty percent of the world’s oil reserves, made this point abundantly apparent in a letter sent on December 6 to its members and supporters, in which it urged them to oppose an accord that would target fossil fuels.

Concerns were raised about the summit’s likelihood of failing as a result of the letter.

After the agreement was finalized, Kerry stated to the press, “I believe there were times in the past forty-eight hours where some of us had thought, ‘this could fail.'”

“I want you to know that COP28 will fail to achieve any meaningful decisions by the end of the conference next week,” he stated in an email to Reuters early on in the conference. Mohammad Al Sabban, a former senior negotiator for Saudi Arabia, agreed with this viewpoint when speaking to Reuters.

After being confronted with firmly established stances and realizing that time was running out, Al Jaber utilized his provocative technique to shake things up.

His office made public an overview of a “menu” of alternatives nations may take to address climate change on December 11. Options included the use of carbon capture, the reduction of fossil fuel use, and the reduction of subsidies for fossil fuels. However, these options should not be taken.

It was not mentioned that there would be a “phase out.”

Outrage was the response that was heard throughout the halls of the meeting. The European Union referred to it as insufficient, while climate nongovernmental organizations called it disastrous. Small island states referred to it as a death sentence.

So that was the impression that was sought.

According to a person who has firsthand knowledge of the tactics employed by the presidency, “Everyone saw immediately that this was a menu rather than a directional text.” In a manner that was highly public and that contributed to the development of people’s actual positions and their boundaries. As a result, it became quite evident where individuals stood. At that moment, everybody had been acting courteously!

The host of the United Arab Emirates then organized a majlis, the Arabic word for a sitting room. In this majlis, the negotiators sat in a circle facing one another and took turns articulating their views. This novel strategy exposed the widespread need to address the issue of fossil fuels.

The COP28 president continued to hold discussions until the wee hours of the following days of the conference. Furthermore, they delayed the release of an updated draft agreement until the early hours of December 13, which was one day after the summit was due to come to a close.

“The idea was to use the clock to your advantage to squeeze the best deal and put the pressure back on the parties,” according to the informant.

NO OTHER WORDS
It became abundantly evident that the draft agreement would only be successful if its final pact significantly addressed the future of fossil fuels. The uproar that the draft arrangement caused made this abundantly clear.

Nevertheless, the phrase “phase out” remained a red line. According to delegates who spoke with Reuters, Beijing, Riyadh, and other countries would never accept it because it could become politically heated.

Grace Fu, the Minister of Environment for Singapore, who was engaged in the discussions, stated that “very often in a negotiation, parties are too hunkered-down in their respective positions.” “And words like ‘phase out’ became a problem.”

Sources informed Reuters that Kerry and his Chinese colleague, Xie Zhenhua, discussed the possibility of a workaround, which would include using other phrases that effectively imply the same thing.

The recent climate cooperation agreement that Xie and Kerry made in Sunnylands, California, in November already had a road map. This is because they have worked together on climate change for twenty years, during which time they have developed a good connection with one another.

It was not termed “phasing out” in that agreement; rather, it advocated for replacing fossil fuels with renewable energy sources with rapid replacement. Such a phrase, to a certain degree, encapsulated what was already taking place worldwide, which was the implementation of laws by governments to transition to a more environmentally friendly economy.

After reaching a consensus between the two most influential participants, the next step was to convince OPEC to join the effort, which resulted in a series of discussions.

“Ultimately, Kerry, China and the Saudis played a constructive role at the eleventh hour when it was clear there were no other options on the table,” according to another source.

According to the delegates, including carbon capture in the final pact seemed to be a concession to Saudi Arabia and the larger OPEC group. Saudi Arabia and the OPEC group had maintained for a long time that emissions could be reduced without targeting specific fuels.

Following the conclusion of the agreement, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, the energy minister of Saudi Arabia, stated that the kingdom’s support for the pact was based on the fact that it allows nations to make their own decisions regarding appropriate paths to greener sources of energy.

According to the person aware of the discussions, the final flurry of diplomacy ensured that the agreement would be approved: “I would say that doing the right thing became the only option left.”

Geopolitics & Foreign Policy

Despair in Gaza as fighting intensifies despite Israel’s promise to scale back the war.

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Israeli bombings in southern and central Gaza escalated on Wednesday, despite a commitment by Israel that it would withdraw some forces and transition to a more focused assault, as well as a beg from its partner Washington to decrease the number of civilian fatalities.

The Houthi movement in Yemen, which claims it is acting to help Gaza, launched the most significant strike to date against United States and British warships in the Red Sea. This is the most recent indication that the war, which has been going on for three months, is spreading. Both Washington and London have reported that they were successful in shooting down 21 missiles and drones that were intended for maritime channels. Nobody was wounded in the incident.

Following weeks of pressure from the United States to reduce its operations and transition to what Washington considers to be a more focused campaign, Israel said this week that it intended to begin bringing down forces, at least from the northern portion of Gaza.

However, it seems that the combat is as ferocious as it has ever been, particularly in the southern and central regions, which are the places where Israeli troops made ground gains a month ago.

In response to security concerns, the World Health Organization (WHO) decided to cancel a scheduled medical aid mission to Gaza. This is the sixth time in the past two weeks that such a mission has been canceled.

When an Israeli attack occurred on the major road near Deir al-Balah in the central Gaza Strip, the Palestinian Red Crescent reported that four of its employees were murdered. The strike occurred on the ambulance that they were riding in. The ambulance was carrying two people who were injured and eventually passed away.

More than 23,000 Palestinians have been murdered in Gaza since Israel began its effort to eliminate the Hamas terrorist group that rules the territory. This comes after Hamas members carried out a rampage on October 7 that resulted in the deaths of 1,200 Israelis and the abduction of 240 captives who were held captive.

Gaza’s health officials have calculated that almost forty percent of those who were murdered were under the age of eighteen.

Having lost their family home in an air attack that resulted in the death of their father, Laila al-Sultan, who is seven years old, and her brother Khaled, who is four years old, are currently residing in a tent shanty town in the southern region of Gaza.

“The house collapsed on us, and Daddy went to heaven, and he is very happy,” Khaled remarked as he bounced up and down on Laila’s lap. “The house collapsed on us.”

WARNING FROM HOUTHI

Antony Blinken, the Secretary of State of the United States of America, made his fourth trip to the area since the beginning of the conflict. On Wednesday, he traveled to Ramallah and met with Palestinian officials, including Mahmoud Abbas, the President of the Palestinian Authority (PA), in the West Bank, which is under Israeli occupation.

Even though it recognizes Israel’s right to exist and exercises limited self-rule in the West Bank, the Palestinian Authority (PA) lost control of Gaza in 2007. Hamas, which is committed to the destruction of Israel, took control of Gaza.

Blinken reportedly voiced his support for the establishment of a Palestinian state, emphasized the efforts being made to safeguard and assist people in Gaza, and advocated for “administrative reforms” to be implemented by the Palestinian Authority.

The Palestinian Authority (PA) said that Abbas advised Blinken that no Palestinians should be relocated from Gaza or the West Bank.

Furthermore, Blinken has spoken with officials from Israel and traveled to Arab governments in the vicinity to hunt for a potential settlement for the Gaza Strip and its population of 2.3 million people.

The meeting between Jordan’s King Abdullah and Egyptian President Abdel Fatah al-Sisi occurred in Aqaba on Wednesday. During the meeting, Jordan and Egypt issued a warning against any reoccupation of the Gaza Strip by Israel and made a request that inhabitants who had been uprooted be allowed to return to their homes.

Washington is concerned that the conflict in Gaza might spread bloodshed throughout the region, with armed organizations supported by Iran, Israel’s most opposed nation, unleashing strikes in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen in sympathy with Israel.

The Houthis, who control the majority of Yemen, have been bombing one of the busiest shipping routes in the world, which is located at the mouth of the Red Sea. As a result, the United States government has been forced to send warships to provide security.

According to a spokesman for the Houthi military, the group fired a large number of missiles and drones at a United States ship that was providing support to Israel. The spokesman referred to the attack as a “preliminary response” to an incident that occurred on New Year’s Eve, in which United States helicopters sank three boats carrying Houthi fighters who attempted to board a commercial vessel.

According to Blinken, who made this statement when he was in Bahrain, which was the next stop on his journey, there would be repercussions for ongoing attacks on commercial vessels.

“We’ve also repeatedly tried to make clear to Iran, as other countries have, that the support that they’re providing to the Houthis, including for these actions, needs to stop,” he said to reporters.

The no-let-up

Despite Israel’s public declarations since the New Year that it is reducing the intensity of the battle, the inhabitants of Gaza claim that they have not witnessed any reduction in the conflict. There has been at least one instance of the whole community being evicted from their houses, with many people being relocated many times as Israeli soldiers continue to advance.

The bodies of fifteen members of the Nofal family were laid out at a hospital morgue in Rafah, which is located on the southern fringe of the enclave. After an Israeli air strike overnight destroyed their home, the victims were there. Relatives wailed as they stared at the bodies.

The majority of the white shrouds were tiny, and they contained children. Um Ahmed, a mother of five now taking refuge in a tent near Rafah, stated that Gazans had anticipated Blinken’s presence would signal they would be allowed to return to their homes.

It is comparable to words written in butter, since it vanished as soon as the sun rose in the sky. She said, “Those were Blinken’s words, and they were fake.”

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The Maldives upgrades ties with China amid pivot from India.

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The Maldives upgraded ties with China amid a pivot from India. Following a campaign in which he painted China’s regional rival India as a danger to sovereignty, newly elected President Mohamed Muizzu of the Maldives boosted ties with China on Wednesday on his first state visit to Beijing.

Speaking at the Great Hall of the People, Chinese President Xi Jinping referred to Muizzu as “an old friend” as the Asian behemoth agreed to a “comprehensive strategic cooperative partnership,” opening the door for more investment in the Indian Ocean archipelago.

Xi told Muizzu, “China and the Maldives’ relations are facing a historic opportunity to carry forward the past and forge ahead into the future,” according to Chinese official media.

After winning on his “India Out” platform, whereby he described New Delhi’s enormous influence as a danger to sovereignty, Muizzu assumed office in November. Despite being deeply indebted to Beijing, his administration has recently requested hundreds of Indian military troops stationed locally to leave while promoting opportunities for Chinese businesses.

Following a military skirmish in the western Himalayas in June 2020 that claimed the lives of 20 Indian and 4 Chinese soldiers, ties between the two countries plummeted.

China is paving the way for more investment in a region where India has already witnessed another neighbor, Sri Lanka, move closer to China by strengthening its relations with the Maldives.

Following the meeting, his presidential office said that “20 key agreements between the two countries” had been signed. “During the talks, President Dr. Muizzu expressed gratitude for China’s significant role in the Maldives’ economic success and infrastructure development,” the statement said.

According to World Bank data, the Maldives owes China $1.37 billion, or around 20% of its public debt, which puts Beijing ahead of Saudi Arabia and India, which owe $124 million and $123 million, respectively, as its largest bilateral creditors.

According to statistics from the American Enterprise Institute think tank, since the Maldives decided to join the Belt and Road Initiative in 2014, Chinese companies have made additional investments in the country totaling $1.37 billion.

According to official media, Xi stated, “China firmly supports the Maldives in safeguarding its national sovereignty, independence, and national dignity.” Plus, according to Xinhua, Beijing would be open to “exchanging experience of state governance” with Male.

Before meeting with Xi, Muizzu was shown a video on X, formerly known as Twitter, via his presidential office account. The video showed him touring the Chinese Communist Party Museum in Beijing.

In an October development assessment on the Maldives, the World Bank cautioned that further cozying up to China may be problematic since there was a “lack of domestic investment opportunities” and a “build-up of sovereign exposure” during the epidemic.

Xi stated that he supported more direct flights between the two nations, which might benefit the Maldives’ travel and tourist industry, which the Asian Development Bank estimates would account for 79% of the country’s economic development in 2022.

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Ecuador’s president says the country is at war as gangs hold prison staff hostage.

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Daniel Noboa, the president of Ecuador, declared on Wednesday that his nation was “at war” with criminal gangs that had over 130 jail guards and other employees as hostages. He momentarily took over a TV station via live broadcast and detonated explosives in a wave of violence that has left significant streets desolate.

On Tuesday, Noboa designated 22 gangs as terrorist groups, designating them as recognized military targets. Upon assuming office in November, the president committed to addressing the escalating security issue stemming from an increase in drug-trafficking organizations smuggling cocaine via Ecuador.

Noboa declared on Wednesday, “We are at war and we cannot cede in the face of these terrorist groups.” Noboa declared a 60-day state of emergency in response to the hostage-takings, which started in the small hours of Monday, and the alleged weekend escape of Los Choneros gang boss Adolfo Macias from jail.

On Tuesday, following a string of explosions around the nation and a spectacular live-streamed takeover of a TV station by gunmen, he tightened the edict.

The government claims that Noboa’s proposal to construct two new, high-security prisons for gang leaders is the reason for the violence, and Noboa informed the radio station that the designs for the two new institutions will be revealed to the public tomorrow.

Noboa declared, “We are doing everything in our power to free all of the hostages,” adding that the military had assumed control of the rescue operation. “We are doing everything possible, and the impossible, to get them safe and sound.”

According to the SNAI prisons agency, 125 captives are guards, while the remaining 14 are administrative employees. It stated that eleven individuals were let go on Tuesday.

Social media users posted videos of prison staff members being shot and hanged, among other acts of horrific cruelty. Reuters could not immediately confirm the validity of the films. According to Noboa, the nation will start deporting foreign inmates this week, particularly those from Colombia, to lower the jail population and costs.

Approximately 1,500 individuals from Colombia are incarcerated in Ecuador, according to Noboa, who also stated that 90% of foreign inmates are from Colombia, Peru, and Venezuela.

Colombian legislation requires that repatriations be evaluated on a case-by-case basis and predicated on inmates’ petitions. Despite this, Colombia’s justice minister stated on local radio on Tuesday that he was eager to negotiate with Ecuador.

Like many other Latin American nations, Colombia has supported the Ecuadorian government. On Wednesday, the country said it would strengthen its military presence and control along their shared border, which spans over 600 kilometers (370 miles).

PERMANENT VIOLENCE

Noboa told the radio station that ensuring the rule of law and enhancing security would be the best ways to protect the economy and foreign investment.

On Tuesday, lawmakers endorsed Noboa’s initiatives and supported the armed forces. After his party formed alliances with a Christian party and the socialist movement of former President Rafael Correa, Noboa now leads a majority coalition in Congress.

Noboa stated, “I have asked for their support, but I don’t need their approval right now for what we are doing,” about the decrees. On Wednesday morning, Noboa also had a meeting in Quito with ambassadors to Ecuador.

The police reported on Wednesday that since Monday, there have been 70 arrests about various incidents, including the seizure of the TV station.

Four police officers are still being detained after criminals allegedly abducted them between Monday and Tuesday. Late on Tuesday, three more cops were released. The police were identifying the three victims found in a burned-out car overnight south of the capital and adding that there was still violence in Guayaquil, the country’s largest city.

On Tuesday, armed individuals killed two police officers in the province of Guayas, where Guayaquil is located. The cops did not offer any more information. On Wednesday morning, many shops were closed, leaving the streets of Quito and Guayaquil quiet.

A major Chinese investor in Ecuador said that the Chinese embassy and consulates would be temporarily shuttered. All around the country, schools were closed, but courses continued digitally. Locals reported feeling as though pandemic lockdowns were again in place.

“The streets are very empty; it’s horrible,” forty-year-old Rodolfo Tuaz, a security guard in Guayaquil, said. “It’s a frigid environment, as if there were a new COVID.”

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