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How Qatar swayed Israel and Hamas to make a truce work.

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During the week when global leaders were praising Qatar for mediating a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, Qatar’s negotiators discreetly increased their efforts to mediate the conflict. They were concerned that the ceasefire might fail before it had even begun.

Qatari officials worked through the night to help secure the crucial final details of a ceasefire that lasted seven days before hostilities resumed on Friday. This ceasefire allowed for the release of dozens of hostages held in Gaza in exchange for hundreds of Palestinian prisoners, and it also allowed for the flow of humanitarian aid into the shattered coastal strip. On Friday, Qatar announced it was working with both parties to negotiate a revised agreement.

According to Reuters, the most comprehensive account to date of how Qatar’s mediators in Doha helped to bridge the gap between Israel and Hamas on November 22 has been stitched together. It provides a peek at Qatar’s aggressive attitude in negotiations between what one source participating in the negotiations referred to as “two parties that have zero level of confidence in each other.”

According to Abdullah Al Sulaiti, a professional diplomat of Qatar’s primary negotiators, there were genuine concerns that the initial truce deal would never be implemented when presented to the public last week.

“I thought we were going to lose it and that the agreement wouldn’t fly,” he commented in an interview. “I thought we were going to lose it.” The terms of the agreement that covered the truce as well as the swaps of prisoners and hostages that accompanied it were not very specific.

According to sources in Qatar, the Palestinian Territories, and Egypt, who are acquainted with the high-stakes discussions, the negotiators from the tiny Gulf state were aware that Israel and Hamas had not yet reached an agreement on when or how the truce and the exchange would occur.

According to a source briefed on the discussions, it was vital to define all of the items in the agreement and ensure they meant the same thing to Israel and Hamas.

According to the source, who requested not to be identified due to the delicate nature of the discussions, the Israeli side had committed to “park” tanks that it was operating within the Gaza strip. However, none had agreed on what exactly that meant on the ground.

According to a source briefed on the discussions, Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani cleaned up his itinerary to maintain his concentration. He did this by canceling excursions scheduled to take him to Moscow and London.

According to the source, Sheikh Mohammed initiated a new round of discussions on the afternoon of Wednesday, November 22, inside one of his offices in Doha. This occurred just a few hours after the truce was announced.

David Barnea, the head of the Israeli intelligence agency Mossad, and a group of Egyptian intelligence officials were present for the primary meeting of the Prime Minister. Barnea had arrived from Israel for at least the third time since the beginning of the conflict. The source claimed that the Qataris used a different area to call Hamas representatives who had stayed in their villa office across town.

An official from the United States who is aware of the situation and Egyptian security sources have stated that the Qataris’ approach to mediation was to be proactive and to throw their weight into discussions. This was in contrast to the traditional technique of just passing on signals from one side to the other.

An official from the United States stated that Doha had already utilized such strategies to press for solutions to overcome the gaps in demands that existed between Israel and Hamas. This was particularly noticeable when negotiators addressed the delicate matter of hostages before the initial declaration of a ceasefire.

In response to the comprehensive questions posed for this piece, neither the United States Department of State nor the Hamas political office in Doha responded. Mossad is under the supervision of the office of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, which refuses to comment on the matter.

According to statements made to the press by Qatar’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Hamas and Israel met in Doha until “the early morning” on November 23 and reached an agreement on a strategy to put the ceasefire agreement into effect the following day. In a particular story, it did not reply to a request for a comment.

THE TERM “POSTMEN”
At the beginning of the discussions, the administration of Netanyahu stated that it would not exchange Palestinian detainees detained in Israel for hostages held in Gaza. In 2011, Hamas was successful in obtaining the release of more than 1,000 Palestinian detainees who were being held in Israel in return for the release of one Israeli soldier. According to those aware of the discussions, Hamas made several demanding requests.

A compromise was reached between the two parties, which stipulated that there would be three Palestinian inmates for every civilian hostage.

The official from Qatar, who was participating in the discussions, stated that the most important thing was to make changes to the proposal that was being made by one party until it was acceptable to the other side.

According to what he stated, “We say ‘Listen, let’s have a second round of discussions with you before we send the proposal,'” he said while speaking under the condition of complete anonymity.

“If we decided to be like postmen and deliver letters only, I doubt that we would have finished this agreement.”

The person informed of the discussions stated that Qatari representatives worked the phones and traveled back and forth between several rooms on November 22.

To get a consensus on the precise location in Gaza where Israeli tanks would be stationed during the truce, Qatari mediators facilitated negotiations between Israel and Hamas. Similarly, they mediated an agreement over how Israeli forces would fulfill a demand presented by Hamas to evacuate Gaza hospitals, particularly Al Shifa, where they had taken positions, according to the source.

He added that the negotiators, some of whom have been active in Israel-Hamas mediations since 2014, also needed to hammer out a vital feature: a safety mechanism meant to ensure that any tiny breach in the ceasefire would not lead it to collapse. This was a crucial element that needed to be worked out.

According to him, they successfully got both sides to agree to particular processes they would be required to follow in the event of an incident. These procedures included a study of realistic scenarios such as gunfire or tank movements.

It was shortly after the truce went into effect that Israeli forces opened fire on Palestinians who were attempting to relocate to northern Gaza, according to the source. This triggered the mechanism, which was activated.

According to a readout of the call by the White House, Qatar’s Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani spoke on the phone with Vice President Joe Biden of the United States of America almost five hours into the summit. During their conversation, they addressed the execution of the arrangement.

A few hours after the marathon session had concluded, Qatar’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced that the ceasefire would go into effect in Gaza on Friday, November 24, at seven o’clock in the morning.

CONTACT THE MEDIATOR
As one of the very few nations that maintains an open line of contact with both Israel and Hamas, the gas-rich nation of Qatar has emerged as the primary go-to mediator in the conflict that has been going on for many weeks since the attack by Hamas on January 7. The United States of America and Russia also lauded the contributions made by their “Qatari friends.”

Qatar’s mediation efforts have also been met with criticism from Western nations. Specifically, lawmakers from the United States and Europe have accused the Gulf States of assisting Hamas, which they consider to be a terrorist organization.

When Sheikh Tamim arrived in Berlin a month ago, the ambivalence was displayed: “State visit by the blood emir,” read the banner title on the November 12 edition of the German daily Bild.

Officials from Qatar have stated that they started receiving representatives from Hamas in Doha in 2012, at the request of the United States government, following the removal of the political office of the Palestinian terrorists from Syria. According to Qatari sources, Israel carefully examines every money transfer that Qatar provides to Palestinians living in Gaza.

According to Mehran Kamrava, a professor of government at Georgetown University in Qatar, Qatar’s capacity to successfully negotiate in this dispute is likely the most essential aspect behind Qatar’s ability to do so. This is because Qatar has a personal relationship to the top members of the terrorist group.

Their words are, “Look. We have offered an office and logistical assistance at a considerable expense to our existing reputation.We were the only ones who were there for you when you needed us, and now is when you need to return the favor,” he said. “We are the only ones who were there for you.”

Even though Qatari negotiators were near Hamas officials, they did not communicate directly with the leaders of the group in Gaza. Instead, they communicated with Hamas representatives located in Doha. During the month and a half of intensive combat that preceded the truce on November 24, the communication chain was interrupted many times, at one point, for two full straight days. According to the person who was informed of the discussions, this was due to power outages or Israeli shutdowns.

Mossad frequently plays a diplomatic role in Israel’s contacts with Qatar. This is because the two nations do not have official diplomatic connections, a condition that, according to one Western source in the Gulf, helped to hold down the process.

Following the attack that took place on October 7 by the terrorist organization Hamas, Israel claims that gunmen murdered 1,200 people and abducted 240 captives. In reaction to this, Netanyahu has vowed to completely eradicate Hamas, which is the ruling party in Gaza.

The Israeli government responded by conducting a bombardment of the region for seven weeks, which resulted in the deaths of over 15,000 Palestinians, as reported by health officials in the coastal strip.

There have been around one hundred hostages freed from Gaza since the beginning of the ceasefire, including those who are not Israeli. A minimum of 210 Palestinians have been freed from Israeli prisons, and relief groups have been granted permission to boost the amount of fuel and humanitarian material that is being shipped to Gaza.

In an interview with Reuters, Al Sulaiti, the Qatari mediator, stated that his task was not yet over even though the truce had been effective.

“At the beginning, I thought that reaching an agreement would be the most difficult step,” said the government servant who has been involved in mediations between Israel and Hamas since 2014. “I’ve discovered that sustaining the agreement itself is equally challenging.”

The duration of the ceasefire was nearly precisely one week. In response to Israel’s accusations that Hamas had fired rockets and broken a commitment to release all of the women who were being held as hostages, hostilities escalated once again on Friday.

Geopolitics & Foreign Policy

Despair in Gaza as fighting intensifies despite Israel’s promise to scale back the war.

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Israeli bombings in southern and central Gaza escalated on Wednesday, despite a commitment by Israel that it would withdraw some forces and transition to a more focused assault, as well as a beg from its partner Washington to decrease the number of civilian fatalities.

The Houthi movement in Yemen, which claims it is acting to help Gaza, launched the most significant strike to date against United States and British warships in the Red Sea. This is the most recent indication that the war, which has been going on for three months, is spreading. Both Washington and London have reported that they were successful in shooting down 21 missiles and drones that were intended for maritime channels. Nobody was wounded in the incident.

Following weeks of pressure from the United States to reduce its operations and transition to what Washington considers to be a more focused campaign, Israel said this week that it intended to begin bringing down forces, at least from the northern portion of Gaza.

However, it seems that the combat is as ferocious as it has ever been, particularly in the southern and central regions, which are the places where Israeli troops made ground gains a month ago.

In response to security concerns, the World Health Organization (WHO) decided to cancel a scheduled medical aid mission to Gaza. This is the sixth time in the past two weeks that such a mission has been canceled.

When an Israeli attack occurred on the major road near Deir al-Balah in the central Gaza Strip, the Palestinian Red Crescent reported that four of its employees were murdered. The strike occurred on the ambulance that they were riding in. The ambulance was carrying two people who were injured and eventually passed away.

More than 23,000 Palestinians have been murdered in Gaza since Israel began its effort to eliminate the Hamas terrorist group that rules the territory. This comes after Hamas members carried out a rampage on October 7 that resulted in the deaths of 1,200 Israelis and the abduction of 240 captives who were held captive.

Gaza’s health officials have calculated that almost forty percent of those who were murdered were under the age of eighteen.

Having lost their family home in an air attack that resulted in the death of their father, Laila al-Sultan, who is seven years old, and her brother Khaled, who is four years old, are currently residing in a tent shanty town in the southern region of Gaza.

“The house collapsed on us, and Daddy went to heaven, and he is very happy,” Khaled remarked as he bounced up and down on Laila’s lap. “The house collapsed on us.”

WARNING FROM HOUTHI

Antony Blinken, the Secretary of State of the United States of America, made his fourth trip to the area since the beginning of the conflict. On Wednesday, he traveled to Ramallah and met with Palestinian officials, including Mahmoud Abbas, the President of the Palestinian Authority (PA), in the West Bank, which is under Israeli occupation.

Even though it recognizes Israel’s right to exist and exercises limited self-rule in the West Bank, the Palestinian Authority (PA) lost control of Gaza in 2007. Hamas, which is committed to the destruction of Israel, took control of Gaza.

Blinken reportedly voiced his support for the establishment of a Palestinian state, emphasized the efforts being made to safeguard and assist people in Gaza, and advocated for “administrative reforms” to be implemented by the Palestinian Authority.

The Palestinian Authority (PA) said that Abbas advised Blinken that no Palestinians should be relocated from Gaza or the West Bank.

Furthermore, Blinken has spoken with officials from Israel and traveled to Arab governments in the vicinity to hunt for a potential settlement for the Gaza Strip and its population of 2.3 million people.

The meeting between Jordan’s King Abdullah and Egyptian President Abdel Fatah al-Sisi occurred in Aqaba on Wednesday. During the meeting, Jordan and Egypt issued a warning against any reoccupation of the Gaza Strip by Israel and made a request that inhabitants who had been uprooted be allowed to return to their homes.

Washington is concerned that the conflict in Gaza might spread bloodshed throughout the region, with armed organizations supported by Iran, Israel’s most opposed nation, unleashing strikes in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen in sympathy with Israel.

The Houthis, who control the majority of Yemen, have been bombing one of the busiest shipping routes in the world, which is located at the mouth of the Red Sea. As a result, the United States government has been forced to send warships to provide security.

According to a spokesman for the Houthi military, the group fired a large number of missiles and drones at a United States ship that was providing support to Israel. The spokesman referred to the attack as a “preliminary response” to an incident that occurred on New Year’s Eve, in which United States helicopters sank three boats carrying Houthi fighters who attempted to board a commercial vessel.

According to Blinken, who made this statement when he was in Bahrain, which was the next stop on his journey, there would be repercussions for ongoing attacks on commercial vessels.

“We’ve also repeatedly tried to make clear to Iran, as other countries have, that the support that they’re providing to the Houthis, including for these actions, needs to stop,” he said to reporters.

The no-let-up

Despite Israel’s public declarations since the New Year that it is reducing the intensity of the battle, the inhabitants of Gaza claim that they have not witnessed any reduction in the conflict. There has been at least one instance of the whole community being evicted from their houses, with many people being relocated many times as Israeli soldiers continue to advance.

The bodies of fifteen members of the Nofal family were laid out at a hospital morgue in Rafah, which is located on the southern fringe of the enclave. After an Israeli air strike overnight destroyed their home, the victims were there. Relatives wailed as they stared at the bodies.

The majority of the white shrouds were tiny, and they contained children. Um Ahmed, a mother of five now taking refuge in a tent near Rafah, stated that Gazans had anticipated Blinken’s presence would signal they would be allowed to return to their homes.

It is comparable to words written in butter, since it vanished as soon as the sun rose in the sky. She said, “Those were Blinken’s words, and they were fake.”

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The Maldives upgrades ties with China amid pivot from India.

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The Maldives upgraded ties with China amid a pivot from India. Following a campaign in which he painted China’s regional rival India as a danger to sovereignty, newly elected President Mohamed Muizzu of the Maldives boosted ties with China on Wednesday on his first state visit to Beijing.

Speaking at the Great Hall of the People, Chinese President Xi Jinping referred to Muizzu as “an old friend” as the Asian behemoth agreed to a “comprehensive strategic cooperative partnership,” opening the door for more investment in the Indian Ocean archipelago.

Xi told Muizzu, “China and the Maldives’ relations are facing a historic opportunity to carry forward the past and forge ahead into the future,” according to Chinese official media.

After winning on his “India Out” platform, whereby he described New Delhi’s enormous influence as a danger to sovereignty, Muizzu assumed office in November. Despite being deeply indebted to Beijing, his administration has recently requested hundreds of Indian military troops stationed locally to leave while promoting opportunities for Chinese businesses.

Following a military skirmish in the western Himalayas in June 2020 that claimed the lives of 20 Indian and 4 Chinese soldiers, ties between the two countries plummeted.

China is paving the way for more investment in a region where India has already witnessed another neighbor, Sri Lanka, move closer to China by strengthening its relations with the Maldives.

Following the meeting, his presidential office said that “20 key agreements between the two countries” had been signed. “During the talks, President Dr. Muizzu expressed gratitude for China’s significant role in the Maldives’ economic success and infrastructure development,” the statement said.

According to World Bank data, the Maldives owes China $1.37 billion, or around 20% of its public debt, which puts Beijing ahead of Saudi Arabia and India, which owe $124 million and $123 million, respectively, as its largest bilateral creditors.

According to statistics from the American Enterprise Institute think tank, since the Maldives decided to join the Belt and Road Initiative in 2014, Chinese companies have made additional investments in the country totaling $1.37 billion.

According to official media, Xi stated, “China firmly supports the Maldives in safeguarding its national sovereignty, independence, and national dignity.” Plus, according to Xinhua, Beijing would be open to “exchanging experience of state governance” with Male.

Before meeting with Xi, Muizzu was shown a video on X, formerly known as Twitter, via his presidential office account. The video showed him touring the Chinese Communist Party Museum in Beijing.

In an October development assessment on the Maldives, the World Bank cautioned that further cozying up to China may be problematic since there was a “lack of domestic investment opportunities” and a “build-up of sovereign exposure” during the epidemic.

Xi stated that he supported more direct flights between the two nations, which might benefit the Maldives’ travel and tourist industry, which the Asian Development Bank estimates would account for 79% of the country’s economic development in 2022.

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Ecuador’s president says the country is at war as gangs hold prison staff hostage.

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Daniel Noboa, the president of Ecuador, declared on Wednesday that his nation was “at war” with criminal gangs that had over 130 jail guards and other employees as hostages. He momentarily took over a TV station via live broadcast and detonated explosives in a wave of violence that has left significant streets desolate.

On Tuesday, Noboa designated 22 gangs as terrorist groups, designating them as recognized military targets. Upon assuming office in November, the president committed to addressing the escalating security issue stemming from an increase in drug-trafficking organizations smuggling cocaine via Ecuador.

Noboa declared on Wednesday, “We are at war and we cannot cede in the face of these terrorist groups.” Noboa declared a 60-day state of emergency in response to the hostage-takings, which started in the small hours of Monday, and the alleged weekend escape of Los Choneros gang boss Adolfo Macias from jail.

On Tuesday, following a string of explosions around the nation and a spectacular live-streamed takeover of a TV station by gunmen, he tightened the edict.

The government claims that Noboa’s proposal to construct two new, high-security prisons for gang leaders is the reason for the violence, and Noboa informed the radio station that the designs for the two new institutions will be revealed to the public tomorrow.

Noboa declared, “We are doing everything in our power to free all of the hostages,” adding that the military had assumed control of the rescue operation. “We are doing everything possible, and the impossible, to get them safe and sound.”

According to the SNAI prisons agency, 125 captives are guards, while the remaining 14 are administrative employees. It stated that eleven individuals were let go on Tuesday.

Social media users posted videos of prison staff members being shot and hanged, among other acts of horrific cruelty. Reuters could not immediately confirm the validity of the films. According to Noboa, the nation will start deporting foreign inmates this week, particularly those from Colombia, to lower the jail population and costs.

Approximately 1,500 individuals from Colombia are incarcerated in Ecuador, according to Noboa, who also stated that 90% of foreign inmates are from Colombia, Peru, and Venezuela.

Colombian legislation requires that repatriations be evaluated on a case-by-case basis and predicated on inmates’ petitions. Despite this, Colombia’s justice minister stated on local radio on Tuesday that he was eager to negotiate with Ecuador.

Like many other Latin American nations, Colombia has supported the Ecuadorian government. On Wednesday, the country said it would strengthen its military presence and control along their shared border, which spans over 600 kilometers (370 miles).

PERMANENT VIOLENCE

Noboa told the radio station that ensuring the rule of law and enhancing security would be the best ways to protect the economy and foreign investment.

On Tuesday, lawmakers endorsed Noboa’s initiatives and supported the armed forces. After his party formed alliances with a Christian party and the socialist movement of former President Rafael Correa, Noboa now leads a majority coalition in Congress.

Noboa stated, “I have asked for their support, but I don’t need their approval right now for what we are doing,” about the decrees. On Wednesday morning, Noboa also had a meeting in Quito with ambassadors to Ecuador.

The police reported on Wednesday that since Monday, there have been 70 arrests about various incidents, including the seizure of the TV station.

Four police officers are still being detained after criminals allegedly abducted them between Monday and Tuesday. Late on Tuesday, three more cops were released. The police were identifying the three victims found in a burned-out car overnight south of the capital and adding that there was still violence in Guayaquil, the country’s largest city.

On Tuesday, armed individuals killed two police officers in the province of Guayas, where Guayaquil is located. The cops did not offer any more information. On Wednesday morning, many shops were closed, leaving the streets of Quito and Guayaquil quiet.

A major Chinese investor in Ecuador said that the Chinese embassy and consulates would be temporarily shuttered. All around the country, schools were closed, but courses continued digitally. Locals reported feeling as though pandemic lockdowns were again in place.

“The streets are very empty; it’s horrible,” forty-year-old Rodolfo Tuaz, a security guard in Guayaquil, said. “It’s a frigid environment, as if there were a new COVID.”

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