Democracy & Elections
Poland’s election turned Germany into a punchbag, straining the Western alliance.
Poland’s populist government has turned its attention to Germany, its largest commercial partner and ally, as it fights for an unprecedented third term in office.
In a close race before Poland’s election on October 15, leaders of the ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party have charged Germany with attempting to impose its policies on the Polish government from Berlin on migration and gas.
The conflict has weakened Europe’s mostly unifying front backing Ukraine against Russia’s incursion and destroyed a proposal for a joint Polish-German tank repair facility that would have benefited Kyiv.
Additionally, the populist PiS leadership claims that Germany is attempting to reinstall Donald Tusk, the liberal former prime minister and the party’s major electoral rival.
In particular, for older conservatives who recall the carnage of World War Two, PiS has tapped into a hostility toward Germany that still runs high in a portion of the population.
Are you aware of a location where you may read the opposition’s campaign platform? At a campaign rally, Mateusz Morawiecki, the prime minister, said: “In German publications.
RESPONSE TO UKRAINE
His party views Tusk as a puppet of the German government because he is the “political husband” of former German chancellor Angela Merkel. Tusk claimed that his grandfather was forcefully drafted into the Nazi Wehrmacht during World War Two before fleeing to the Allied side. Merkel’s successor, Olaf Scholz, was also made fun of in a campaign film.
Months of disputes between the two neighbors have put the Western alliance’s fellowship, which has surrounded Ukraine since the Russian incursion last year, to the test. They have emerged when other concerns, such as Slovakia’s election of a pro-Russian leader, threaten disruption.
The conflict has already influenced attempts to aid Ukraine. A combined repair facility for German-built Leopard tanks damaged in the war in Ukraine was revealed in April by the defense ministers of Germany and Poland with a grin and an embrace of friendship.
But the agreement immediately fell through. In a different debate, Warsaw first refused a German proposal to install Patriot missile air defense batteries in Poland before accepting them.
According to U.S. General Ben Hodges, who oversaw U.S. Army operations in Europe from 2014 to 2017, “it’s very unhelpful that Poland, the people from the Law and Justice Party, continues to criticize Germany in such a harsh public way.”
It is harmful because it strains the bonds between two NATO partners, which strains the alliance’s unity.
The Polish defense giant Polska Grupa Zbrojeniowa (PGZ) and the German manufacturers Krauss-Maffei Wegmann and Rheinmetall (RHMG.DE), neither of which replied to a request for comment, would have collaborated on the tank facility.
One German outlet mentioned Poland’s very high repair request as one of the issues. A German diplomat who was a second source claimed that German corporations’ reluctance to disclose technical knowledge contributed to the discussions’ failure.
But it also revealed a little of what we saw in the Patriots: a general distrust of the Poles and a tendency to treat a partner in a manner that is out of character for an EU or alliance cooperation.
Currently, PGZ is repairing certain Leopard tanks with replacement components that Germany sent.
It partially hinged on how quickly and decisively the German side moved. We were bargaining. Sebastian Chwalek, CEO of PGZ, told Reuters that we regrettably have a somewhat different idea of what it should be like.
Other tanks will be repaired somewhere else, “which may be a little bit more expensive and may take a little bit longer, but it’s happening anyhow,” the German ambassador added.
We are unable to agree on such issues, which is an indication of our current relationship.
Reuters’ efforts for a response from Polish government representatives were not immediately answered.
A representative of the German Foreign Office said Berlin and Warsaw collaborate closely on issues of European security and defense but declined to comment on “current domestic political debates in Poland.”
DIMINISHING RELATIONS
Relations between Poland and Germany have been chilly since PiS first came to office in 2015, but Poles now perceive a deterioration of those relations. According to a German-Polish barometer survey this year, just 47% of respondents believe ties are favorable, down from 72% in 2020.
Many Poles, including 56% of those who responded to the opinion survey, believe Germany hasn’t done enough to make up for the harm caused by the war. Berlin rejected PiS’s demand that Germany make reparations totaling over a trillion euros.
According to a PiS source who asked to remain anonymous, ties between Berlin and Warsaw are “competitive,” and they “could work together on many issues,” some of which, including reparations, are contentious.
In a confidential statement to Reuters, two German legislators said Berlin might have been more forthright in responding to Polish concerns and taking acceptable action about the reparations debate.
“I think we should be looking beyond the ridiculous (Polish policy) that this (election) campaign has put in front of us. The time has come for Germany to examine itself, according to Thomas Kleine-Brockhoff of the German Marshall Fund.
Scholz’s administration has mainly ignored PiS’s criticism. According to a government source, Berlin was careful to avoid unintentionally inciting Warsaw.
The insider stated, “We’re walking on eggshells.” Undoubtedly, some commentators think that Polish rhetoric against Berlin may be lowered following the elections.
However, there will probably still be points of contention on both sides, such as migration, which became a major flashpoint last month due to a cash-for-visa scandal in Poland.
In all honesty, Hodges stated, “I hope that my president will invite the two leaders to Camp David in a similar manner to how he invited the leaders from Japan and South Korea.”
President Joe Biden may meet President Andrzej Duda and Chancellor Scholz at some point and say, “Fellows, we have to fix it.”
Thousands protested in Belgrade to demand the annulment of elections. An anti-government demonstration took place on Sunday in the central business district of Belgrade. The demonstration aimed to demand the annulment of the unfair parliamentary and local elections a week ago.
According to early findings from the state election commission, the populist Serbian Progressive Party (SNS), now in power, received 46.72 percent of the votes cast in the snap parliamentary elections over the weekend.
A monitoring mission from the international community stated on Monday that the Social Networking Service (SNS) had obtained an unfair advantage due to prejudice in the media, unlawful influence from President Aleksandar Vucic, and voting irregularities such as vote-buying.
Vucic stated that the elections were conducted legally. A witness who spoke to Reuters claimed that the police used pepper spray on Sunday when a crowd attempted to break into the town hall in Belgrade, which houses the city’s local election commission. A few of the demonstrators scaled the stairs of the building and shattered the glass. People hurled stones at windows, causing the glass to shatter.
Demonstrators screamed, “Vucic thief,” again. The Ministry of the Interior issued a statement that urged demonstrators to “refrain from breaking into the town hall.”
“By reacting calmly, we are trying not to hurt protesters,” Vucic stated in the message in the early evening. In the election, the Socialist Party of Serbia came in third with 6.56% of the vote. In contrast, the opposition alliance Serbia Against Violence, a center-left coalition, came in second place with 23.56% of the vote.
While the audience yelled, “Get in, get in,” and “No surrender,” Srdjan Milivojevic and Vladimir Obradovic, members of the Serbia Against Violence coalition, attempted to open the town hall entrance but were unsuccessful. These individuals were unable to enter the building.
At around ten o’clock (2100 GMT), the anti-riot police moved protesters away from the town hall. Marinika Tepic, another Serbia Against Violence organization member, has been on a hunger strike since the elections.
The President of Poland swore in the new administration under Prime Minister Donald Tusk on Wednesday. This was the final stage in a power transfer that, after eight years of nationalist control, represented a significant shift in the country’s political landscape.
When Tusk was appointed, there were years of disagreements between Warsaw and Brussels under the previous administration, led by the Law and Justice (PiS) party. The selection of Tusk has increased expectations that ties with the rest of the European Union will become more harmonious.
Tusk, a moderate who served as president of the European Council from 2014 to 2019, claimed to obtain billions of euros for Poland in a speech he delivered to the Polish parliament on Tuesday. The EU has frozen these billions of euros due to concerns about the rule of law during his tenure as president of the European Council.
Both the authority to veto bills held by President Andrzej Duda, an ally of the PiS and the fact that judges were nominated under PiS changes that opponents say weakened the independence of the courts might make his work more difficult.
In the past, Duda has expressed his disapproval of Tusk in a manner that is quite critical; nevertheless, on Wednesday, after the swearing-in ceremony, he adopted a constructive and conciliatory tone.
“Please be aware that I am open to cooperation,” stated the president. “We come from different political camps, but I have found out that on important issues, such as security, we can come to an understanding.”
According to Tusk, who is 66 years old, his administration will prioritize the restoration of the rule of law and respecting the Constitution. Additionally, his government considers Duda partially accountable for policies that it believes have harmed the independence of the judiciary.
“Faithfulness to the provisions of the constitution will be the trademark of our government,” Tusk stated, adding that he believed the desire of voters to see the rule of law re-established was the reason for the record turnout in an election on October 15th.
THE IMMINENT CHALLENGES
Although they were victorious in the election, they lacked the required majority to form a government. This enabled Tusk to form a government, which parliament subsequently approved on Tuesday.
An example of the difficulties that Tusk will have to deal with is the decision that Poland’s Constitutional Tribunal made on Monday, which said that the judicial reform legislation that Poland needed to approve to gain access to EU money contradicted the constitution.
It came to the same judgment regarding the fines imposed by the highest court in the European Union (EU) before it reached a final ruling, referred to as interim measures.
Spending at the eleventh hour by the previous administration has also contributed to the stress on the budget, making it more difficult for Tusk to fulfill his commitments during the campaign.
In preparation for the European Union meeting that will take place on Thursday and Friday, Tusk is anticipated to fly to Brussels.
Additionally, Tusk will lend his support to Ukraine’s effort to eventually become a member of the bloc, in addition to his efforts to unlock finances for Poland.
Tusk stated on Tuesday that Poland will lobby for continuous support, which comes at a time when Kyiv is becoming increasingly concerned about the commitment of its Western friends to supporting its defense against Russia’s incursion.
The potential exists that Hungary would not provide the go-ahead for Ukraine to begin EU membership discussions at a conference in Brussels. This would be a disappointing development for Ukraine.
“Outside interference” must be avoided during Taiwan’s election in 2024, according to the senior diplomat of the United States in Taipei, who stated on Monday that the United States’ stance toward the island will stay the same regardless of who wins.
During the presidential and parliamentary elections that will take place on January 13, Taiwan’s relations with its neighbors might be defined by the results of these elections. President Tsai Ing-wen and other authorities have warned that China may attempt to influence voters in favor of candidates who desire stronger ties with Beijing.
However, even though diplomatic relations with the Chinese-claimed island have been severed, the United States continues to be Taiwan’s most significant international backer and weaponry supplier.
In a lecture that she delivered at National Taiwan University, Sandra Oudkirk, who is the director of the American Institute in Taiwan and the de facto representative of the United States in Taiwan, they were stated that the United States has a great deal of faith in Taiwan’s democratic system and election procedures.
“We believe it is for the Taiwan voters to decide their next leader, free from outside interference,” stated the politician.
“And as I have said many times before, the United States is not taking sides in Taiwan’s election, we do not have a preferred candidate and we know very well that we do not have a vote,” according to Oudkirk. “We support Taiwan’s vibrant democracy and look forward to working with whichever leaders Taiwan voters elect in 2024.”
According to the results of popular opinion surveys, Lai Ching-te, presently serving as vice president and a member of the Democratic Progressive Party, is the leading candidate to become Taiwan’s next leader. China has rejected several of Lai’s invitations for negotiations because of China’s strong distaste for him and its belief that he is a separatist.
Lai’s primary adversary is Hou Yu-ih, a member of Taiwan’s major opposition party, the Kuomintang. This party has always supported tight connections with China. Still, it vehemently rejects being pro-Beijing and asserts that it will continue to preserve its close relationship with the United States.
The Chinese government has increased the amount of military pressure it exerted against Taiwan over the previous four years. This includes conducting two rounds of massive war exercises near the island in the past year and a half.
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