Geopolitics & Foreign Policy
EU states push against ‘no Russia clause’ in sanctions package.
According to six sources, the European Union (EU) nations are taking a firm stance against some aspects of the most recent proposed package of sanctions against Russia. These aspects include the so-called “no Russia clause,” retaliatory financial constraints, and the enforcement of sanctions on items intended for direct personal use.
Additionally, the package, which would be the bloc’s 12th since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, aims to narrow additional loopholes on sanctions circumvention. This would be the bloc’s 12th package since Russia.
On the other hand, several member states, whose identities the sources did not reveal, have expressed their opinion that the new plan is comprehensive, would harm the EU’s international trade, and would ultimately fail to achieve its goals.
This week, during a conference of ambassadors, countries expressed their concern that Article 12 G of the plan, which has been called the “No Russia clause,” could cause widespread disruption for European businesses worldwide, according to people involved with the discussions.
Based on the ideas discussed at the conference, the sources stated that EU exporters would be compelled to include a re-export restriction to Russia for all commodities in the Commission’s list of custom codes. This list includes more significant things used daily than those applicable to Russia’s military.
One person stated, “A small entrepreneur in Brazil would have to fulfill contracts in such a complex system… the discussion should be focused on highly critical goods,” they all declined to be named due to the sensitive nature of the negotiations. “The discussion should be focused on highly critical goods,” the source said.
According to three sources, the version of the plan presented on Tuesday included an additional amendment that exempted the use of sanctioned items for personal use from this most recent package. This is because the use of such goods has become a source of abuse at Russia-EU crossings ever since the previous packages came into effect.
Personal goods that can be resold are confiscated by border guards whenever people of any nationality exit Russia and cross the border into the United States. Based on a sanctions list that includes products that may be used as “potential revenue” for Russia, they justify the actions that they have taken.
Two of the individuals stated that products such as toothpaste were also being taken, which led to the attempt to develop a provision for items that are used for personal purposes. The European Union Commission has recognized this is happening with expensive items such as automobiles.
According to one source, most countries that attended the ambassadorial meeting of the 27-member bloc did not support the proposed measures requiring EU authorization for “any transfer of funds” by a Russian entity or Russian national residing in Russia outside of the EU. These measures were criticized as being pointlessly burdensome because they did not have thresholds below which a transaction would be exempt from the requirements. Another report stated that “many” countries raised objections.
Since the bloc is waiting for the G7 to provide its technical direction, which is anticipated to take place within the next few weeks, the fundamental components of the proposed package, which include an indirect ban on Russian diamond imports and modifications to how the Group of Seven (G7) Russian oil price ceiling may be implemented more effectively, have not been actively addressed.
The European Union and the Group of Seven are working to restrict the trade of Russian oil by setting a crude oil price ceiling of sixty dollars a barrel. Even though it was successful for some time, Western nations reported that Russian oil earnings were increasing due to a growing “shadow fleet” of tankers consisting of older Western ships.
The European Union (EU) is considering including liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and some metals products on its list of prohibited goods that will be included in the 12th package. Initially, the plan called for a wind-down duration of three months for the commodities; however, the most recent version of the proposed packaging increased the wind-down period to one year for some iron products and LPG.
Geopolitics & Foreign Policy
Despair in Gaza as fighting intensifies despite Israel’s promise to scale back the war.
Israeli bombings in southern and central Gaza escalated on Wednesday, despite a commitment by Israel that it would withdraw some forces and transition to a more focused assault, as well as a beg from its partner Washington to decrease the number of civilian fatalities.
The Houthi movement in Yemen, which claims it is acting to help Gaza, launched the most significant strike to date against United States and British warships in the Red Sea. This is the most recent indication that the war, which has been going on for three months, is spreading. Both Washington and London have reported that they were successful in shooting down 21 missiles and drones that were intended for maritime channels. Nobody was wounded in the incident.
Following weeks of pressure from the United States to reduce its operations and transition to what Washington considers to be a more focused campaign, Israel said this week that it intended to begin bringing down forces, at least from the northern portion of Gaza.
However, it seems that the combat is as ferocious as it has ever been, particularly in the southern and central regions, which are the places where Israeli troops made ground gains a month ago.
In response to security concerns, the World Health Organization (WHO) decided to cancel a scheduled medical aid mission to Gaza. This is the sixth time in the past two weeks that such a mission has been canceled.
When an Israeli attack occurred on the major road near Deir al-Balah in the central Gaza Strip, the Palestinian Red Crescent reported that four of its employees were murdered. The strike occurred on the ambulance that they were riding in. The ambulance was carrying two people who were injured and eventually passed away.
More than 23,000 Palestinians have been murdered in Gaza since Israel began its effort to eliminate the Hamas terrorist group that rules the territory. This comes after Hamas members carried out a rampage on October 7 that resulted in the deaths of 1,200 Israelis and the abduction of 240 captives who were held captive.
Gaza’s health officials have calculated that almost forty percent of those who were murdered were under the age of eighteen.
Having lost their family home in an air attack that resulted in the death of their father, Laila al-Sultan, who is seven years old, and her brother Khaled, who is four years old, are currently residing in a tent shanty town in the southern region of Gaza.
“The house collapsed on us, and Daddy went to heaven, and he is very happy,” Khaled remarked as he bounced up and down on Laila’s lap. “The house collapsed on us.”
WARNING FROM HOUTHI
Antony Blinken, the Secretary of State of the United States of America, made his fourth trip to the area since the beginning of the conflict. On Wednesday, he traveled to Ramallah and met with Palestinian officials, including Mahmoud Abbas, the President of the Palestinian Authority (PA), in the West Bank, which is under Israeli occupation.
Even though it recognizes Israel’s right to exist and exercises limited self-rule in the West Bank, the Palestinian Authority (PA) lost control of Gaza in 2007. Hamas, which is committed to the destruction of Israel, took control of Gaza.
Blinken reportedly voiced his support for the establishment of a Palestinian state, emphasized the efforts being made to safeguard and assist people in Gaza, and advocated for “administrative reforms” to be implemented by the Palestinian Authority.
The Palestinian Authority (PA) said that Abbas advised Blinken that no Palestinians should be relocated from Gaza or the West Bank.
Furthermore, Blinken has spoken with officials from Israel and traveled to Arab governments in the vicinity to hunt for a potential settlement for the Gaza Strip and its population of 2.3 million people.
The meeting between Jordan’s King Abdullah and Egyptian President Abdel Fatah al-Sisi occurred in Aqaba on Wednesday. During the meeting, Jordan and Egypt issued a warning against any reoccupation of the Gaza Strip by Israel and made a request that inhabitants who had been uprooted be allowed to return to their homes.
Washington is concerned that the conflict in Gaza might spread bloodshed throughout the region, with armed organizations supported by Iran, Israel’s most opposed nation, unleashing strikes in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen in sympathy with Israel.
The Houthis, who control the majority of Yemen, have been bombing one of the busiest shipping routes in the world, which is located at the mouth of the Red Sea. As a result, the United States government has been forced to send warships to provide security.
According to a spokesman for the Houthi military, the group fired a large number of missiles and drones at a United States ship that was providing support to Israel. The spokesman referred to the attack as a “preliminary response” to an incident that occurred on New Year’s Eve, in which United States helicopters sank three boats carrying Houthi fighters who attempted to board a commercial vessel.
According to Blinken, who made this statement when he was in Bahrain, which was the next stop on his journey, there would be repercussions for ongoing attacks on commercial vessels.
“We’ve also repeatedly tried to make clear to Iran, as other countries have, that the support that they’re providing to the Houthis, including for these actions, needs to stop,” he said to reporters.
The no-let-up
Despite Israel’s public declarations since the New Year that it is reducing the intensity of the battle, the inhabitants of Gaza claim that they have not witnessed any reduction in the conflict. There has been at least one instance of the whole community being evicted from their houses, with many people being relocated many times as Israeli soldiers continue to advance.
The bodies of fifteen members of the Nofal family were laid out at a hospital morgue in Rafah, which is located on the southern fringe of the enclave. After an Israeli air strike overnight destroyed their home, the victims were there. Relatives wailed as they stared at the bodies.
The majority of the white shrouds were tiny, and they contained children. Um Ahmed, a mother of five now taking refuge in a tent near Rafah, stated that Gazans had anticipated Blinken’s presence would signal they would be allowed to return to their homes.
It is comparable to words written in butter, since it vanished as soon as the sun rose in the sky. She said, “Those were Blinken’s words, and they were fake.”
Geopolitics & Foreign Policy
The Maldives upgrades ties with China amid pivot from India.
The Maldives upgraded ties with China amid a pivot from India. Following a campaign in which he painted China’s regional rival India as a danger to sovereignty, newly elected President Mohamed Muizzu of the Maldives boosted ties with China on Wednesday on his first state visit to Beijing.
Speaking at the Great Hall of the People, Chinese President Xi Jinping referred to Muizzu as “an old friend” as the Asian behemoth agreed to a “comprehensive strategic cooperative partnership,” opening the door for more investment in the Indian Ocean archipelago.
Xi told Muizzu, “China and the Maldives’ relations are facing a historic opportunity to carry forward the past and forge ahead into the future,” according to Chinese official media.
After winning on his “India Out” platform, whereby he described New Delhi’s enormous influence as a danger to sovereignty, Muizzu assumed office in November. Despite being deeply indebted to Beijing, his administration has recently requested hundreds of Indian military troops stationed locally to leave while promoting opportunities for Chinese businesses.
Following a military skirmish in the western Himalayas in June 2020 that claimed the lives of 20 Indian and 4 Chinese soldiers, ties between the two countries plummeted.
China is paving the way for more investment in a region where India has already witnessed another neighbor, Sri Lanka, move closer to China by strengthening its relations with the Maldives.
Following the meeting, his presidential office said that “20 key agreements between the two countries” had been signed. “During the talks, President Dr. Muizzu expressed gratitude for China’s significant role in the Maldives’ economic success and infrastructure development,” the statement said.
According to World Bank data, the Maldives owes China $1.37 billion, or around 20% of its public debt, which puts Beijing ahead of Saudi Arabia and India, which owe $124 million and $123 million, respectively, as its largest bilateral creditors.
According to statistics from the American Enterprise Institute think tank, since the Maldives decided to join the Belt and Road Initiative in 2014, Chinese companies have made additional investments in the country totaling $1.37 billion.
According to official media, Xi stated, “China firmly supports the Maldives in safeguarding its national sovereignty, independence, and national dignity.” Plus, according to Xinhua, Beijing would be open to “exchanging experience of state governance” with Male.
Before meeting with Xi, Muizzu was shown a video on X, formerly known as Twitter, via his presidential office account. The video showed him touring the Chinese Communist Party Museum in Beijing.
In an October development assessment on the Maldives, the World Bank cautioned that further cozying up to China may be problematic since there was a “lack of domestic investment opportunities” and a “build-up of sovereign exposure” during the epidemic.
Xi stated that he supported more direct flights between the two nations, which might benefit the Maldives’ travel and tourist industry, which the Asian Development Bank estimates would account for 79% of the country’s economic development in 2022.
Geopolitics & Foreign Policy
Ecuador’s president says the country is at war as gangs hold prison staff hostage.
Daniel Noboa, the president of Ecuador, declared on Wednesday that his nation was “at war” with criminal gangs that had over 130 jail guards and other employees as hostages. He momentarily took over a TV station via live broadcast and detonated explosives in a wave of violence that has left significant streets desolate.
On Tuesday, Noboa designated 22 gangs as terrorist groups, designating them as recognized military targets. Upon assuming office in November, the president committed to addressing the escalating security issue stemming from an increase in drug-trafficking organizations smuggling cocaine via Ecuador.
Noboa declared on Wednesday, “We are at war and we cannot cede in the face of these terrorist groups.” Noboa declared a 60-day state of emergency in response to the hostage-takings, which started in the small hours of Monday, and the alleged weekend escape of Los Choneros gang boss Adolfo Macias from jail.
On Tuesday, following a string of explosions around the nation and a spectacular live-streamed takeover of a TV station by gunmen, he tightened the edict.
The government claims that Noboa’s proposal to construct two new, high-security prisons for gang leaders is the reason for the violence, and Noboa informed the radio station that the designs for the two new institutions will be revealed to the public tomorrow.
Noboa declared, “We are doing everything in our power to free all of the hostages,” adding that the military had assumed control of the rescue operation. “We are doing everything possible, and the impossible, to get them safe and sound.”
According to the SNAI prisons agency, 125 captives are guards, while the remaining 14 are administrative employees. It stated that eleven individuals were let go on Tuesday.
Social media users posted videos of prison staff members being shot and hanged, among other acts of horrific cruelty. Reuters could not immediately confirm the validity of the films. According to Noboa, the nation will start deporting foreign inmates this week, particularly those from Colombia, to lower the jail population and costs.
Approximately 1,500 individuals from Colombia are incarcerated in Ecuador, according to Noboa, who also stated that 90% of foreign inmates are from Colombia, Peru, and Venezuela.
Colombian legislation requires that repatriations be evaluated on a case-by-case basis and predicated on inmates’ petitions. Despite this, Colombia’s justice minister stated on local radio on Tuesday that he was eager to negotiate with Ecuador.
Like many other Latin American nations, Colombia has supported the Ecuadorian government. On Wednesday, the country said it would strengthen its military presence and control along their shared border, which spans over 600 kilometers (370 miles).
PERMANENT VIOLENCE
Noboa told the radio station that ensuring the rule of law and enhancing security would be the best ways to protect the economy and foreign investment.
On Tuesday, lawmakers endorsed Noboa’s initiatives and supported the armed forces. After his party formed alliances with a Christian party and the socialist movement of former President Rafael Correa, Noboa now leads a majority coalition in Congress.
Noboa stated, “I have asked for their support, but I don’t need their approval right now for what we are doing,” about the decrees. On Wednesday morning, Noboa also had a meeting in Quito with ambassadors to Ecuador.
The police reported on Wednesday that since Monday, there have been 70 arrests about various incidents, including the seizure of the TV station.
Four police officers are still being detained after criminals allegedly abducted them between Monday and Tuesday. Late on Tuesday, three more cops were released. The police were identifying the three victims found in a burned-out car overnight south of the capital and adding that there was still violence in Guayaquil, the country’s largest city.
On Tuesday, armed individuals killed two police officers in the province of Guayas, where Guayaquil is located. The cops did not offer any more information. On Wednesday morning, many shops were closed, leaving the streets of Quito and Guayaquil quiet.
A major Chinese investor in Ecuador said that the Chinese embassy and consulates would be temporarily shuttered. All around the country, schools were closed, but courses continued digitally. Locals reported feeling as though pandemic lockdowns were again in place.
“The streets are very empty; it’s horrible,” forty-year-old Rodolfo Tuaz, a security guard in Guayaquil, said. “It’s a frigid environment, as if there were a new COVID.”
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