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Bank of America sees lithium surplus in 2023 as demand eases

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Salt evaporation ponds seen on Bristol Dry Lake where Standard Lithium Ltd. is preparing to use Direct Lithium Extraction (DLE) technology to capture lithium from brine on November 30, 2022 near Amboy, California

David Mcnew | Getty Images News | Getty Images

There could be a surplus of lithium in 2023 as higher supply volumes are set to supersede slowing demand for the metal, said Bank of America Securities’ head of Asia Pacific basic materials, Matty Zhao.

“We see a lot of supply coming out from lithium mines … We are expecting 38% lithium supply growth this year. That’s why 2023 is likely to turn into a surplus year for lithium,” Zhao told CNBC.

She also said she expects China’s electric vehicle demand growth to slow from 95% last year to 22% this year. Lithium is a key component of EV batteries, which Zhao said is becoming an increasingly competitive industry.

Since 2021, elevated lithium prices have incentivized adding new supply streams, such as Pilbara Minerals’ Ngungaju Plant in Pilgangoora, Albermarle’s Wodgina mine and Tianqi Lithium’s Greenbushes mine, according to Zhao.

“Meanwhile, existing capacities like Sociedad Química y Minera’s Salar de Atacama, Mineral Resources’ Mt. Marion are expanding aggressively as well,” she said.

In the two years ending December 2021, lithium carbonate spot prices rose 5% to stand at 277,500 yuan per ton. But subsequently surged to a record high of almost 600,000 yuan per ton in November 2022, more than 12 times January 2021 prices.

Lithium prices likely to drop in the first quarter of 2023, says BofA

In May last year, Goldman Sachs forecast lithium supply to grow on average 33% annually between 2022 and 2025.

“We expect Chinese lithium project expansions to multiply rapidly, in particular integrated hard rock projects, just as ex-China spodumene supply continues to strengthen,” the bank’s analysts wrote. The firm also said accelerating EV sales and stationary storage installations will also contribute to demand.

While Zhao still sees EV demand growing 20% globally, she said it’ll be slightly slower than last year’s pace.

“One of the reasons we expect EV growth to be slower this year [is] because last year was a very high base,” she said.

She expects lithium prices in China to average around 400,000 yuan per ton, before dropping to between 350,000 yuan to 400,000 yuan in the near term.

Lithium carbonate prices have recently been trading around 382,500 yuan per ton.

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China says Biden plan to shut it out of US battery supply chain violates WTO rules

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On Thursday, China said that the Biden administration’s intention to restrict the amount of Chinese content in batteries eligible for significant tax incentives for electric vehicles beginning next year violates international trade rules and will cause disruptions in global supply chains.

According to the proposals, investors in the supply chain for electric vehicles (EVs) in the United States will be ineligible for tax credits if they utilize more than a trace quantity of crucial materials from China or other nations that are considered to be a “Foreign Entity of Concern” (FEOC).

According to He Yadong, a spokeswoman for the Ministry of Commerce, “targeting Chinese enterprises by excluding their products from the scope of a subsidy is a typical example of a policy that is not market-oriented.”

“Many World Trade Organization members, including China, have expressed concern about the discriminatory policy of the U.S., which violates the WTO’s basic principles,” said the representative.

As a result of China’s preeminent position in the global battery supply chain, policymakers in the United States and Europe have taken action in response to concerns that low-cost electric vehicles manufactured in China will flood their respective markets.

The European Commission is currently conducting investigations to determine whether Chinese businesses receive improper state subsidies.

Two laws have already been approved in Washington that expressly exclude investors from being able to profit from a $6 billion allocation of tax credits for batteries and essential minerals, as well as subsidies of $7,500 for every new energy vehicle manufactured, should they use FEOCs in their supply chains. These laws make it clear that investors are not eligible to get these benefits.

Specifically, China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran are included in this category. The regulations will go into force in 2024 for batteries that have been built and in 2025 for materials that are considered important.

The administration of Vice President Joe Biden of the United States of America is also recommending strict guidelines, one of which is a threshold of 25% ownership, to determine whether a corporation is under the control of an FEOC.

“By establishing ‘glass barriers’, the U.S. is doing more harm than good to the development of EV technologies and the industry more broadly,” he stated, pointing out that the proposals would “seriously disrupt international trade and investment” .

It is estimated that China is responsible for roughly two-thirds of the world’s lithium processing capacity and seventy-five percent of the world’s cobalt capacity. Both of these elements are utilized in the production of batteries.

Analysts, on the other hand, have questioned whether the hyperbole that the United States and the European Union are using on the possible hazards is warranted by China’s role in global battery supply chains.

“There is a great deal of exaggeration surrounding this. Dan Marks, a research fellow for energy security at the Royal United Services think tank, stated that he is uncertain whether the actions that the European Union or the United States are contemplating are proportionate to the magnitude of the risk.

It is more accurate to argue that the strategies being implemented in Europe and the United States are, in fact, industrial strategies. Simply put, they are concerned with having industries that are competitive and able to endure.

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Trump: I won’t be a dictator if I become U.S. president again

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After receiving warnings from Democrats and some Republicans that the United States of America was in danger of becoming an autocracy if he were to win the election in 2024, Donald Trump stated on Tuesday that he will not become a dictator until “on day one” if he is elected president of the United States of America again.

To disprove the assertion that he would misuse authority to get vengeance on his adversaries if he were to be re-elected to the White House, Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump was questioned twice during a town hall meeting broadcast on television in Iowa.

No, no, no. In response to a question on whether or not he would become a “dictator” if he were to win the election in November, Trump stated, “Aside from day one.”

Trump stated that he would utilize his presidential powers to block the southern border with Mexico and expand oil drilling on the “day one” that he was referring to.

Trump, who is running for a second term in the White House and is expected to face Democratic Vice President Joe Biden in a rematch election, has repeatedly pledged to exact “retribution” on his political adversaries if he can regain power.

In campaign speeches and television appearances this year, he stated that his targets include Vice President Joe Biden, prosecutors who have charged him with scores of felonies, the Department of Justice, and the federal bureaucracy.

One of the most prominent candidates for the Republican nomination for president, Donald Trump, was appearing at a Fox News event in Davenport, Iowa, in front of a welcoming audience. Davenport is the state in which the Republican Party’s nomination process will begin on January 15.

Julie Chavez Rodriguez, the campaign manager for Joe Biden, issued a statement as soon as the event ended. She stated, “Donald Trump has been telling us exactly what he will do if he is re-elected, and tonight he said that he will be a dictator on day one.” Americans must believe him.

Donald Trump, who served as President of the United States from 2017 to 2021, has refused to acknowledge that Joe Biden defeated him in the election of 2020.

Since then, Trump has been spreading false accusations that the election in 2020 was stolen from him. This conspiracy was the driving force for the violent uprising that took place on January 6, 2021, in the United States Capitol, which Trump loyalists spearheaded. The lies that Trump told throughout the election are also a central tenet of his present campaign for the White House.

During a televised discussion that will take place on Wednesday at the University of Alabama at 7 p.m. Central Standard Time (0100 GMT), Trump’s opponents for the nomination, such as Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley, who served as the United States Ambassador to the United Nations, will be there.

The event will be skipped by Trump, just as he has done for the three Republican debates before it.

Biden has frequently expressed his concern that Donald Trump poses a threat to democracy and that a second term for Trump might bring in an era of authoritarianism in the United States that is unprecedented and perhaps deadly.

In comments with the media this week, former United States Representative Liz Cheney, a Republican who is a vocal opponent of President Trump and who co-chaired the congressional investigation into the attack on the Capitol, stated that a Trump dictatorship is a “very real threat” if he is re-elected. Cheney is a member of the Republican candidate for president.

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Elon Musk promises to wear a symbol of Gaza hostages.

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During his trip to Israel, Elon Musk, who had been criticized for an anti-Jewish remark on his social networking platform X, was presented with a symbolic dog tag by the father of an Israeli who had been held captive by Hamas in Gaza. Musk committed the dog tag until all of the pages were released.

“Our hearts are hostage in Gaza,” read the metal tag that Musk got from Malki Shem-Tov, the father of Omer Shem-Tov, who is now being held as a hostage. The office of Israeli President Isaac Herzog released the footage of Musk’s visit on Monday.

The bracelet was wrapped around Musk’s neck. In the latter hours of Monday, he posted a message on X that said, “I will wear it every day until your loved ones are released.”

The dog tags, which are widely distributed across Israel, are a reminder of the cross-border death spree that Hamas carried out on October 7, during which 240 individuals were hauled back to Gaza.

On November 15, Musk expressed his agreement with a post that made a false allegation that Jewish people were inciting hatred against white people. He stated that the poster who mentioned the “Great Replacement” conspiracy theory was using “the actual truth” in their statement.

Immediately after the post, significant corporations in the United States, such as Walt Disney (DIS.N), Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD.O), and Comcast (CMCSA.O), the parent company of NBCUniversal, decided to cease their ads on X, which was once known as Twitter.

An “abhorrent promotion of antisemitic and racist hate” that “runs against our core values as Americans” was what the White House of the United States of America referred to as Musk’s actions.

Musk has indicated that he is opposed to antisemitism and anything that “promotes hate and conflict.” He has also stated that X would not promote hate speech.

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