What Ukraine needs to do to keep its EU membership bid alive

During a conference that will take place this week, the 27 leaders of the European Union might decide whether or not to initiate official membership discussions with Ukraine. This would be a step that would offer a much-needed boost for Kyiv amid uncertainty over the future of essential foreign support during the conflict.

A haste by Ukrainian authorities to change key sectors listed by the European Commission was prompted by the fact that Brussels gave Kyiv candidate status four months after Moscow’s invasion in February 2022.

In its evaluation, released on November 8th, the European Commission lauded Ukraine’s accomplishments and suggested that the leaders of the EU initiate discussions. However, it also highlighted numerous pressing tasks that need to be completed.

Additionally, it proposed a more comprehensive list of changes encompassing nearly every aspect of government that Ukraine should work toward implementing over the following year as it prepared for the possibility of membership.

PRIORITIES FOR THE SHORT-TERM
In a report released a month ago, the commission stated that Ukraine had implemented four of its seven recommendations. These suggestions included the employment of anti-corruption personnel, the preparation of the judiciary for a substantial overhaul, and the alignment of media legislation with EU norms.

Most of the proposals were geared toward strengthening the rule of law, essential for eradicating the legacy of corruption and poor management that the Soviet Union left behind.

The following evaluation of Ukraine’s progress is scheduled for March of next year, according to the commission, which recommended that the remaining three prerequisites be satisfied before the formal opening of discussions.

Even though the timeliness of the passage of legislation was not specifically necessary, by the time the previous Friday rolled around, MPs had already enacted legislation to satisfy practically every last one of them. This included strengthening the National Anti-Corruption Bureau and preserving minority rights.

According to Leonid Litra, who works at the New Europe Center think tank in Kyiv, the quick progress that Ukraine is making is intended to keep Kyiv “on the safe side” by giving skeptics as few justifications as possible to prevent Ukraine from submitting a proposal.

Hungarians, in particular, have voiced their disapproval of how Kyiv treats ethnic Hungarians living in the far west of the nation. Hungary’s leader, Viktor Orban, has urged that the European Union forego making any decision about Ukraine’s membership discussions during the conference that will take place on December 14–15.

Any decision, regardless of whether or not it has the support of the commission, must have the unanimity of the leaders of the EU.

The committee has proposed that Ukraine undertake significant policy changes across various sectors by the end of 2024. These short-term goals are merely a portion of the massive policy reforms the panel has recommended Ukraine make. These areas include public administration and food safety.

In anti-corruption, for example, authorities are required to demonstrate that the battle against graft is “systemic and irrevocable.” This may be accomplished, in part, by ensuring that specialist investigators and prosecutors are permitted to operate independently.

In addition to developing a “time-bound and measurable action plan” to reform law enforcement in a more general sense, the authorities must step up their efforts to combat large-scale unlawful smuggling and enhance the recovery of assets.

In economics, it is anticipated that officials would, among other things, reduce bureaucratic hurdles and reintegrate displaced Ukrainians into the labor market. This is in preparation for international investors’ assistance in rebuilding Ukraine.

Additionally, a wide range of more granular measures are being implemented, such as enhancing the gathering of data by the state and bringing the protection of intellectual property rights in line with those of the European Union.

The European Union’s ambassador to Ukraine, Katarina Mathernova, provided a straightforward description of the struggle ahead.

She stated, “I have news for you: get used to it,” during a briefing in Kyiv the previous month. She alluded to the numerous conditions that Kyiv will be required to fulfill. “The enlargement process is a gruelling one.”

TERRIBLE CARDS
In addition, Hungary has emerged as the bloc’s leading adversary of Ukraine’s membership application, which means that political obstacles are still to come.

European officials have suggested that a second meeting may be required at the beginning of following year if Orban continues to maintain his stance against negotiations and increases financial help for Ukraine.

In the meantime, many believe that the window of opportunity for Kyiv to move forward with reforms may be limited.

Based on the condition of anonymity, a European diplomat stationed in Kyiv expressed their belief that it will be of utmost importance for Ukraine to demonstrate consistent progress to assist in maintaining what may become waning excitement inside the European Union.

According to Litra, who is associated with the New Europe Center, the protracted membership process in the Western Balkans demonstrates that admission is equally dependent on bloc politics and not always based on merit.

“We need all the stars to align, basically.”