Ukrainian troops battle exhaustion as the war drags into the second winter

Istoryk, a 26-year-old soldier in eastern Ukraine, finally managed to fall asleep one morning, exhausted from the constant clashes against Russian soldiers in the pinewood forests near Kreminna.

His recovery was cut short barely an hour later as a fresh gunfight broke out, pushing the senior combat medic back into action in a furious and protracted encounter.

“We had a firefight for over 20 hours,” said Istoryk, identified by his military call sign. “Non-stop fighting, assaults, evacuations, and you know, I managed it,” he told a Reuters reporter visiting his position on Thursday.

“And we all managed it. We aren’t very fresh, and right now we need to find strength.”

His depiction of recent engagements and the tiredness that he and his unit face emphasize the immense strain that the war, now in its 21st month, is taking on Ukraine’s meager resources and forces.

The soldiers also know that Russia has a far greater force and more weaponry and ammunition, posing the problematic issue of how Ukraine can ever expel the invaders once and for all in Europe’s worst fight since World War Two.

Ukraine’s commander-in-chief, Valery Zaluzhnyi, characterized a “stalemate” on the battlefield in an interview released this week, adding that a lengthy, attritional conflict would advantage Russia and may harm the entire state.

Only additional capabilities, including more excellent supply from Western partners and domestically-built drones, will tilt the balance back in Kyiv’s favor, Zaluzhnyi warned.

The highly renowned general’s severe appraisal coincides with the coming of seasonal rains, which makes it difficult to move over muddy ground and follows a summer counteroffensive that has freed considerably less land than Kyiv had planned.

For those in the trenches, while tiredness is inescapable, motivation stays high.

Istoryk, speaking in a thick West Ukrainian dialect, recalls his horrible experiences with a captivating grin.

Asked whether he could continue to battle for another year or possibly two, he replied, “I suppose so. For sure.”

FALTERING OFFENSIVE
Istoryk serves in a rifles battalion of the 67th Mechanized Brigade in the Serebryanskyi forest in the Luhansk area. Russians control the majority of the province.

The ground near the road to the trenches is riddled with holes from incoming shells, and burnt trees have split in half from the blasts.

Fighting is occurring along the frontlines, from the border with Russia’s Belgorod area in the northeast to the Black Sea in the south.

Istoryk asserted that Russia had suffered “huge” losses in the area and that recent nearby shelling had also killed five Ukrainian troops who were part of an evacuation squad.

Reuters could not independently verify his number of losses, but tens of thousands of men have been killed in fighting during 20 months of a conflict that shows no prospect of ending.

Having focused on defense earlier in the year, Ukraine began a counteroffensive in June to win back the initiative and disrupt Russia’s supply lines by driving south towards the Sea of Azov.

Five months ago, that aim remained a distant dream: Ukrainian forces are some 80–90 km from the shore, and substantial Russian fortifications have so far mainly held steady.

More significant gains are still conceivable; last year, Russian soldiers hastily retreated from locations in the Kherson area in early November. However, muddy terrain might make offensive efforts more difficult.

“It’s one thing to run 300 metres to an enemy position in June, and totally another when you are up to your knees in mud, warm clothes, protective gear, a backpack with spare clothes,” Colonel Oleksandr Popov, an artillery reconnaissance brigade commander whose units also operate in the area, told Reuters this week.

The drone pilots from his brigade seemed less weary than those in army units nearby.

Michael Kofman, Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said the fight had reached a “transitional phase” when both parties held the initiative in various sectors of the front.

“Overall, Ukraine’s offensive in the south has either culminated or is about to,” he added.

ARTILLERY WARFARE
Key fights along the front of approximately 1,000 km (620 miles) are raging around the eastern cities of Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Kupiansk, while two key thrusts are taking place in the south—one near Orikhiv and another south of Velyka Novosilka.

Artillery will remain a crucial weapon in the winter, according to Popov, adding that it was more effective when targets were more immobile and barren trees provided minimal concealment for troops on the ground, something that affected both sides.

While the colonel reported a near three-fold decline in the number of Russian artillery attacks in the Lyman sector of the front last month when compared to October 2022, other experts suggested that both sides had limited ammunition stores.

“My sense is that the artillery advantage that Ukraine had for much of its offensive is now going to recede, and that Ukraine’s ammunition availability is going to be constrained,” said Kofman.

“Russia will also be forced to conserve ammunition, but will now increasingly benefit from the influx of supply coming from North Korea.”

Away from the battlefield, Ukraine has aimed to take out Russian air defenses, aircraft, and naval forces with long-range missiles supplied by the West, claiming that such operations make it difficult for the enemy to help frontline soldiers.

Russia, meanwhile, has continued its bombing of Ukraine using drones and missiles in what it says is a targeted military assault, which has killed hundreds of people and knocked down infrastructure crucial for heating, power, and transport.

Back in the woodlands surrounding Lyman, Zakhid, a 26-year-old officer, said the next phase of the conflict will be harsh and a genuine test of character for the troops.

“We’re exhausted, they’re exhausted. But there are more of them, and they have greater equipment.”