Trump Proposes Rejoining Trans-Pacific Partnership, Does it Signal a Change?

Is the potential rejoining of the TPP just another fickle whim of President Trump or is it an actual change of mind in his trade measures?

President Trump has been launching a series of trade measures and legislation to implements protectionist agendas, including tariffs on steel and aluminum and steep duties on Chinese products. On Thursday, however, his attitude went through a drastic reverse as he announced to a group of lawmakers and governors of farm-states, which make up the majority of his voter base, that he would be looking to rejoin the Trans-Pacific Partnership.

Just a few months ago at the beginning of his presidency, he has described this agreement as a “rape of our country”, and the series of measures that have been put into place since then have led to suspicion and fear from may businesses and individuals, who fear the economic repercussions of these measures.

It’s also interesting to note that dropping out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership and tear up the North American Trade Agreement were some of the most core promises of his campaign that appealed to farmers and smaller businesses in rural states. However, this change in attitude incites fear in many farmers and businesses that they will suffer economically as their products would be sent abroad and lost domestic values and profits.

The deal of Trans-Pacific Partnership was consolidated during the Obama administration and was meant to include China into opening its markets and embracing some economic measures that would be desirable for Europe and the United States.  Experts have repeatedly believed that multilateral trade deals like the TPP would provide a better chance for China to actually open up its markets to the rest of the world.

The rejoining of the pact would not only bring further negotiations and relations between China and the United States, two powers who are currently driven closer and closer to the brink of a trade war, it would also benefit farmers who would have a larger newer access to markets, specifically Japan and China if it agrees to open up.

The chairman of U.S. wheat associates, Michael Miller, commented that this decision if implemented, would bring great profits to his industry as it would join the competition with Australia and Canada.

However, rejoining is harder and less straightforward than how it sounds. Countries in the Trans-Pacific Partnership, like Japan, has already carried on without the United States and went on to sign deals without U.S. participation. President Trump, who has prioritized benefits to the United States would most likely seek concessions from partners in the TPP, which would be a difficult task. Japan has specifically claimed that it is not willing to make any further concessions and this would put Mr. Trump in an awkward position.

Many also questioned the reliability of this recent claim as President Trump is known for his fickleness as he has often swayed from sides to sides, breaking many of his promises during the campaign. A senior fellow at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs commented that “what he tells people in a room to make them happy does not always translate into administration policy.”

In response to these questions and doubts, the White House press secretary, Lindsay Walters, said in a statement that Mr. Trump would not reverse his promises anymore and demanded trust and patience from the public.

Whether the United States rejoin Trans-Pacific Partnership or not will be a decision that many powers will be closely watching: it will not only impact domestic businesses and stakeholders, but also international partners and powers including China and Japan.

Featured Image via Wikimedia