Trump keeps edge among evangelicals, but there is an opening for challengers

According to Reuters interviews with evangelical leaders and opinion polling, a challenger still has a chance to win over conservative Christian voters who supported former President Donald Trump.

Iowa and other Republican early-voting states like South Carolina depend on evangelical voters.

High stakes. A rival might limit Trump’s momentum early in the Republican primary with strong evangelical support.

Trump, who has been divorced twice and is under indictment for allegedly paying hush money to a porn star, has shown resilience with evangelicals, who credit him for conservative policy victories like the U.S. Supreme Court’s overturning of federal abortion protections.

Edison Research exit polls showed Trump winning 76% of white evangelicals in 2020, down from 80% in 2016. In November 2020, Reuters/Ipsos polled one-third of Americans as born-again or evangelical Christians.

Interviews and polls suggest that Trump’s closest competitor, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, could steal evangelical voters from the previous president.

There are hints that those voters may soon support Trump.

Pastor Robert Jeffress, who leads a 14,000-member Dallas congregation, said he was undecided in the 2024 Republican primary earlier this year. Jeffress told Reuters last week that he now supports Trump, calling DeSantis “lackluster.”

Jeffress claimed many people don’t know him. He hasn’t swayed evangelicals lately.

Monmouth University polls shows evangelicals supporting Trump. Trump beat DeSantis among evangelicals 51% to 42% in a March poll, a nine-point increase from the month before.

In a March Des Moines Register poll of Iowa voters, 58% of evangelicals regarded Trump positively, 39% unfavorably, and 3% undecided.

Howell, Michigan evangelical pastor Bill Bolin, who made headlines in 2020 by refusing to close his church to follow with state health standards at the outset of the epidemic, said his flock is divided over the next steps.

“A lot of people hope it’s Donald Trump and a lot hope it’s somebody else,” he remarked. “It’s split.”

Evangelicals praise Trump for appointing Supreme Court judges who overturned Roe v. Wade and moving the U.S. embassy to Jerusalem.

Pastors told Reuters that evangelicals are now more concerned about transgender athletes and gender identification since abortion is no longer a federal issue.

Jeffress said, “That is the issue that will drive evangelicals to the polls” in huge numbers.

DeSantis’ aide declined comment. Trump’s spokeswoman declined comment.

Wide open
The Iowa Faith & Freedom Coalition, a conservative nonprofit group, will host a presidential forum on Saturday in Iowa featuring former Vice President Mike Pence, a devout evangelical who may run for president, and Senator Tim Scott.

Republican presidential hopefuls usually attend the event, but DeSantis, who was invited, will not. Trump will attend via video.

In May, DeSantis will attend a Randy Feenstra fundraiser in Iowa.

Longtime Iowa evangelical leader Bob Vander Plaats said he doesn’t see any “galvanizing” around Trump and believes the evangelical base is “exceptionally wide open” to hearing from all candidates.

Franklin Graham and Tony Perkins, head of the Family Research Council, have declared they are not endorsing Trump or any other candidate at this point.

Vander Plaats said evangelicals will ponder if Trump can win next year after Biden defeated him in 2020. He added some evangelicals were furious with Trump for blaming Republicans’ poor 2022 midterm result on abortion restrictions.

Vander Plaats indicated he was looking in 2024.

“America is ready to turn the page,” he declared.

Ted Cruz and Rick Santorum won Iowa caucuses in 2016 and 2012 by leveraging the Christian vote.

DeSantis, a Catholic, has visited evangelical Liberty University and Christian Hillsdale College on his national book tour.

He signed a religious conservative-backed bill banning nearly all abortions in Florida last week.

In January, Cape Coral pastor Tom Ascol gave DeSantis’ second inauguration invocation and claimed he supported the governor over Trump.

“I don’t think President Trump is a principled man — I think he was a great president,” Ascol remarked. He added DeSantis “seems to be a man of sincere faith.”