Saudi Arabia to Suspend Oil Export through Bab al-Mandeb Strait Following Attack

Saudi Arabia has suspended oil export through the Bab al-Mandeb strait in response to an attack on two of their crude oil vessels by Yemeni Houthi rebels. The decision was announced by Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih, stating that the suspension will last: “until the situation becomes clearer and maritime transit through Bab al-Mandeb is safe”. One of the tankers was unharmed, while the other reportedly sustained minor damage. According to the Saudi-Emirati coalition engaged in fighting with the Yemeni rebels, “The Saudi oil tanker was subjected to slight damage due to the attack by the Houthi militia… Thankfully the attack failed due to immediate intervention of the coalition’s fleet.”

According to oil company Saudi Aramco, no injuries or oil spills have been reported. The tanker that sustained damage was attacked to the west of Yemen’s Hodeidah port, which has been a key port in catalyzing violence between the Houthis and its Saudi adversaries. Given that the Houthis had seized control of the port, Yemeni government forces back by a military coalition of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates launched an offensive on Hodeidah in order to recapture the port on June 13. Though they quickly gained control of the international airport located in Hodeidah, the government-led coalition has been unable to regain any additional ground from the Houthi rebels. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates claim that they backed the Yemeni government in this intervention in order to protect key shipping routes, mainly the Red Sea, which is used to ship oil and Asian exports to Europe via the Suez Canal.

In terms of the global economy, it is vital that Saudi Arabia continues to export oil through the Red Sea. According to oil industry expert Bob Cavnar, the announcement of suspended oil exports has already added a dollar to the cost of a barrel of oil. A prolonged suspension could have grave effects on both global supply and the global economy. According to Cavnar, “Even a small shortage – like two or three million barrels of oil a day – could have a substantial effect on crude and that causes an accordion effect through global economies. Clearly this is going to have an effect on global shipping. Any kind of danger to shipping and crews is going to cause a major disruption until the threat is neutralized”. Since the start of the coalition-led Hodeidah offensive, more than 121,000 people have fled the area, according to a report from the United Nations. Yemen has been struggling with famine and disease since 2014 when the Houthis captured control of the vast majority of Yemen.

The situation continues to worsen in 2015 when Saudi Arabia and its allies launched a massive air campaign against the Houthis. This strategy of air superiority took aim at Houthi rebel strongholds and Yemeni farmland. Due to the severe lack of fertile soil in Yemen, the attacks on the already scarce Yemeni farmland has greatly contributed to the famine and death toll in the country. According to the UN, it is estimated that more than 10 million Yemenese civilians will die of malnutrition by the end of the calendar year. In order to understand the tense situation between the Houthis and the Saudi coalition, one must analyze how it got to this point. Saudi Arabia has accused the Houthi rebels as acting as a proxy for the Saudi’s chief regional rival, Iran. While Iran and the Houthis have denied this claim on numerous occasions, the coalition believes that Iran has been covertly arming the rebels in order to create chaos and instability in the region. When analyzing Iran’s political strategy in the region, this claim gains merit. Iran has been accused of setting up proxies throughout the Middle East, including the arming of Hezbollah and the support Iran has lent to the Assad regime in Syria.