Russia digs in as Ukraine prepares to attack

Polohy’s anti-tank ditches are 30 km (19 miles) long. Concrete “dragon’s teeth” barricades surround. Russia’s troops will occupy trenches behind.

Capella Space satellite footage shows a massive network of Russian fortifications from western Russia to eastern Ukraine and Crimea, ready for a large Ukrainian onslaught.

Graphic: Russia heavily fortifies Ukraine.

Ukrainian leaders say a counteroffensive will come when its forces are ready, therefore thousands of men have been training in the West to use various military assets together.

Reuters studied satellite photos of thousands of defensive positions within Russia and along Ukrainian front lines and found it is most densely fortified in southern Zaporizhzhia, the gateway to the Crimean Peninsula.

Six military experts said the defences, primarily erected after Ukraine’s fast autumn advances, might make it harder for Ukraine this time and that progress would depend on its ability to execute complicated, integrated operations.

“Ukrainian numbers don’t matter. Can they do combined arms warfare?” RUSI analyst Neil Melvin remarked. “The Russians have shown they can’t do it and they’ve gone back to their old Soviet method of attrition.”

Military experts warn the length of the front might stretch Russia’s defenses if Ukraine launches a counteroffensive.

Kyiv could reclaim its Black Sea export routes if it can retake the south, even though Russia has threatened to close the grain corridor.

Military experts say Kyiv is under pressure to reclaim as much area as possible in case the West stops providing big amounts of armoured hardware.

“We’ve cleaned out most of the stocks in the West,” Melvin remarked. Rebuilding will take years. This is Ukraine’s chance to advance.”

Ukraine’s Defence Ministry did not react to a written counteroffensive statement request.

Land Corridor
Ukraine wants to reclaim all of Russia’s occupied land, around the size of Bulgaria, but officials won’t provide Moscow any information.

Modern battle tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, bridging equipment, and mine clearance vehicles from the West have led an assault.

According to satellite pictures, Russia has been building huge, layered defenses to ensure its forces will be more secure than when they were driven out of Ukraine’s northeast and Kherson city.

Reuters’ photos suggest that most Russian work occurred after November, when its forces withdrew from Kherson city in the south and both sides sought to maintain positions during the winter.

Military experts believe the defences span hundreds of km and identify regions where Russia expects to be attacked or values territory.

Russia’s defense ministry didn’t answer queries regarding its defenses and counteroffensive ability.

Satellite photos show Russia’s positions along the front lines in southern Zaporizhzhia, east, and across the small strip of land connecting the Crimean Peninsula to Ukraine.

Even though the hardest combat in recent months has been in the east, especially around Bakhmut, military experts all expected a counteroffensive to start in the south.

Last week, Russian President Vladimir Putin made a rare visit to Kherson, signaling its geopolitical importance.

Kyiv military analyst Oleksandr Musiyenko said Ukraine needed the south strategically.

He claimed deep penetration into the south may put the peninsula into artillery range and damage the land link from Russia to Crimea.

Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, based on the diamond-shaped peninsula captured from Ukraine in 2014, has been raining cruise missiles on Ukraine for 14 months.

Europe’s largest nuclear power facility, Zaporizhzhia, situated in the south. It provided 20% of Ukraine’s electricity.

HUGE DIGGING
Capella Space’s satellite photographs show Polohy in Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine’s gateway to the flat south.

The Dnipro River separates Ukraine from the south.

“I traced ditches and trenches running from the eastern bank of the Dnipro south of Vasylivka all the way to Fedorivka, which is to say they run across Zaporizhzhia (Region),” stated Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey research associate John Ford.

He projected 120 kilometres for the defensive section.

Deep and wide anti-tank trenches block tanks and armored vehicles. Pyramid-shaped concrete “dragon’s teeth” obstacles follow. The ditches are a km from the manned trenches.

Minefields, razor wire, and camouflaged weapons positions will supplement Russia’s ditches, barricades, and zig-zag trenches.

Russia built two defensive lines in Polohy—one north and one south.

Reuters footage of Zaporizhzhia shows fortified settlements like Tokmak and Bilmak. Roads, communities, and Melitopol and Berdiansk airports have trenches. Crimea’s north is fortified.

After Russian troops left Kherson city, open-source intelligence researcher and analyst Brady Africk traced defenses from western Russia to Crimea.

“That spurred a huge digging effort, especially across southern Ukraine, where the ground is quite flat,” he said.

Battlefield obstacles
Despite the web of defences, four analysts said Russia would be squeezed by the front, a vulnerability Kyiv would exploit with feints, distractions, surprise, and operational speed.

Musiyenko suggested using Western-supplied warships to launch decoy or full-scale strikes on Kherson from across the Dnipro. Russia may have to move troops.

“Battlefield obstacles are only obstacles so long as they are guarded by capable troops,” remarked Middlebury’s Ford.

Musiyenko predicted a Ukrainian offensive force of 100,000-110,000, comprising eight assault brigades with 40,000 troops.

Russia has not disclosed how many troops are in Ukraine or ready to deploy.

Last month, Ukrainian and Russian officials reported a series of explosions in Melitopol, Zaporizhzhia’s biggest seized city, via Telegram messenger.

Ukraine was targeting logistics nodes, Musiyenko added.

He remarked, “Fortified positions are effective if you have ammunition, rounds, weapons that you can defend with.”

Reuters obtained a Feb. 28 U.S. intelligence memo stating that the West had sent 200 tanks to Ukraine. In December, army chief Valeriy Zaluzhnyi declared he needed 300, plus trucks and artillery, to overcome Russia.

According to those same documents, Ukraine had severe air defense shortfalls, which might be a concern if Kyiv’s forces advance quickly and need protection from aircraft bombardments.