Possible Deal to End the Syrian Civil War Brokered Between Kerry and Moscow

Secretary of State John Kerry visited Moscow this past week, discussing a variety of issues ranging from the Ukrainian Civil War to the war raging on in Syria. The war in Syria, which has drawn on for almost six years, was the main topic being discussed between the two parties, with Secretary of State John Kerry suggesting that the United States would be willing to cooperate with the Russians in Syria in targeting groups like ISIS and Jabhat al-Nusra under certain guidelines.

Before any possible deal between the United States and the Russian Armed Forces can be materialized, however, John Kerry has demanded that the Russians utilize their influence over Bashar al-Assad’s regime and ensure that his forces won’t target American-backed groups in the country. As part of the deal, the Russian Air Force would need to avoid striking any American-backed forces as well.

This potential breakthrough is a major shift in policy between both parties, as they have frequently refused to engage in joint operations together in the past out of worry it would benefit one party more than the other. However, it would appear that the United States is softening up on its stance against the Syrian regime as this deal will largely benefit Russia’s long-standing ally.

One of the groups said to be targeted in any potential deal, Jabhat al-Nusra, is part of a coalition called Jaish al-Fateh. Jaish al-Fateh is a coalition of Islamist groups that has largely been the “muscle” for the rebels in Syria as the FSA have largely been weakened throughout the course of the war. In addition, the groups who identify under the American-backed FSA lack the same expertise and equipment as the groups that fight under the JaF banner. If JaN, which is a key member of JaF, is targeted by both the United States and the Russians, this will undoubtedly weaken the JaF coalition that has given the Syrian regime many problems in Southern Aleppo and Latakia province. As a result, this would inevitably decrease the strength of the opposition groups in Syria which could tip the scale in favor of the Syrian military.

This deal has been criticized by the likes of Sen. Graham and McCain with both of them claiming that the deal will hurt the opposition groups fighting in Syria. While it would make sense to attack jihadist groups like JaN, which could potentially pose as security threats in the future, at the same time, supporters of the opposition argue that in the long-term this deal will severely undermine the ability of the opposition groups to maintain battlefield leverage.

Though the talks have been intense and there does appear to be signs pointing towards a possible breakthrough, Kerry is still skeptical of Russia’s commitment to upholding their end of the bargain. Kerry was quoted as saying “Let the proof be in the pudding, not our words,” when speaking in reference to the steps needed to be taken before the United States could count on Russia as a legitimate partner. Kerry has been previously accused of placing too much faith and trust into the Russian government, so this is statement is without a doubt directed at his critics.

Even if a deal were to be struck, there aren’t very many people who believe the deal would hold together. Similar to the previous “ceasefires” in Syria, it is likely that this deal will be largely ineffective in ending the violence across the country because of the lack of coordination between all of the parties involved in the conflict.

While it is not known when the official result of the talks will be released, we can expect to hear from John Kerry or Moscow at least before August 1st. The date August 1st, 2016 is the date that the United States has set for President Bashar al-Assad to begin a gradual ‘transition,’ emphasizing that if no transition takes place the United States will have to resort to other means of ending the war.

Featured Image via www.en.kremlin.ru