NATO mulls future security guarantees for Ukraine but wary of igniting a wider war

The commander of NATO said Monday that leaders are debating methods to prevent Russia from attacking Ukraine again after the war, but they are apprehensive about getting drawn into a bigger confrontation.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy wants “security guarantees” from the 31-nation alliance to deter a neighboring invasion. Some nations are considering ways to prevent another war. Russia captured Crimea in 2014.

In a Copenhagen conference interview with his predecessor, Anders Fogh Rasmussen, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said, “There are consultations that are going on” ahead of a summit between U.S. President Joe Biden and his counterparts in Lithuania on July 11-12.

Stoltenberg declined to discuss those negotiations.

Article 5 of NATO’s foundational Washington Treaty guarantees that an assault on one ally is an attack on all.

When Finland and Sweden asked to join NATO last year, the U.S., U.K., France, and Germany promised security guarantees to deter President Vladimir Putin from destabilizing them.

Sweden has yet to join, while Finland enjoys Article 5 protection.

Stoltenberg stated, “We don’t know how this war will end, but what we do know is that when it ends it is extremely important that we are able to prevent history from repeating itself. “This has to stop,” he said of Russia’s 2008 war with Georgia and Crimea’s annexation.

“The only way to ensure that stops is partly to ensure that Ukraine has the military strength to deter and defend against further aggression from Russia but also to find some kind of framework to prevent President Putin from continuing to chip away at European security,” Stoltenberg said.

However, “if NATO allies, and especially the big ones, start to issue security guarantees bilaterally to Ukraine we are very close to Article 5. Thus, these concerns cannot be resolved easily.”

British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak requested long-term security guarantees for Ukraine from NATO in February. He said they are needed to protect Ukraine from Russian aggression and the international order that has kept peace since World War II.

NATO defends just its member countries because it fears being drawn into a wider battle with nuclear-armed Russia. However, its members do transfer weaponry to Ukraine bilaterally and in smaller groupings.

All 31 NATO nations must approve for Ukraine to join. Most allies reject admitting the country during wartime.

Stoltenberg wants NATO leaders to support Ukraine’s membership aspirations at their summit and underscore that the alliance’s door is open to European countries.

However, if Ukraine loses the war, membership is pointless.

“The most important thing is to be very strong in our support to Ukraine, so Ukraine (can) prevail,” Stoltenberg added.