Geopolitics & Foreign Policy

Hezbollah leader set to weigh in on Middle East war.

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Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah, is scheduled to speak in public for the first time this Friday since Israel and the Palestinian organization Hamas went to war. The address is expected to be closely watched for hints about how the group’s involvement in the conflict may change.

Along the border, Hezbollah, a potent military force with Iranian support, has been engaging Israeli troops. In the worst escalation since the group’s 2006 conflict with Israel, 55 of its men have perished.

Hezbollah conducted what looked to be its largest offensive in almost three weeks of warfare on the day of the address, claiming to have fired 19 simultaneous strikes on Israeli army positions and deploying explosive drones for the first time.

As the fighting on the border intensified, Israel retaliated with airstrikes as well as artillery and tank fire.

Still, Hezbollah has only used a small portion of the weaponry that Nasrallah has been using to threaten Israel for years, with the majority of the fighting thus far taking place near the border.

A great deal of anxiety has been roiling Lebanon for weeks as residents wait tensely for the 3 p.m. (1300 GMT) address, fearing a devastating conflict. Some claim they have no plans past Friday because they think his comments will increase the likelihood of an escalated situation.

Others are looking forward to the address as well. In a regional military coalition that Iran formed to oppose Israel and the United States, Nasrallah is a prominent voice.

The “axis of resistance” consists of Yemen’s Houthis, who have entered the battle by launching drones at Israel, and Shi’ite Muslim militias in Iraq that have been firing against American soldiers in Syria and Iraq.

Nasrallah is a well-known figure in the Arab world, dressed in the black turban of a Sayyed, a descendant of the Prophet Mohammad, and in Shi’ite clerical robes.

Even his detractors acknowledge that he is a gifted speaker, and friends and enemies have long paid close attention to his talks. Several opponents, including the United States, consider him to be a terrorist.

His stature rose as a result of his passionate remarks made during the 2006 conflict, such as the one in which he declared that Hezbollah had used an anti-ship missile to strike an Israeli navy vessel and urged the audience to “look to the sea.”

OVERLOOKING THE FIGHT

Although Nasrallah has not been seen in public since October 7, other Hezbollah officials have stated that the organization is prepared for battle. However, they haven’t drawn any boundaries in the dispute with Israel.

When asked why Nasrallah had not yet spoken on October 22, Hassan Fadlallah, a legislator for Hezbollah, replied that Nasrallah was monitoring the war in Lebanon and keeping an eye on the situation in Gaza “moment by moment and hour by hour.” It was “part of his management of the battle” that he refrained from speaking in public.

The address will be shown in tandem with Hezbollah-organized protests honoring slain combatants.

Since 2006, Israel and Hezbollah have refrained from engaging in combat across the Lebanese-Israeli border due to their mutual threats of devastation. Their fight has been fought in Syria in the interim.

According to those with knowledge of Hezbollah’s strategy, the organization has been cautious in its strikes thus far to prevent a significant escalation and to keep Israeli forces occupied near the border.

Lebanon cannot afford to fight Israel in another war. Four years ago, there was a disastrous financial crisis that left many Lebanese suffering.

Israel has said that it is not interested in a confrontation with Lebanon on its northern border.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has cautioned Hezbollah not to establish a second front in the conflict, as doing so would result in “unimaginable” Israeli counterattacks that would destroy Lebanon.

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