Change in the Iranian Election

President Rouhani and Vice President Janghiri. Featured Image via Wikimedia.

The Iranian election received a major change this past weekend in the city of Shiraz. Current vice-president Eshaq Janghiri, a reformist, pulled out of the Iranian Presidential Election and urged his supporters to re-elect current president Hassan Rouhani, saying “I have completed my historic duty and, together with you, I will vote for Rouhani to help continue on the path to progress for this country.” Although this withdrawal was expected, it seems to be a critical step in Rouhani’s incumbency campaign.

What was originally viewed as an easy reelection has recently been made more difficult after Tehran’s Mayor Mohammed Baqer Qalibaf ended his campaign in hopes of conservative cleric Ebrahim Raisi getting elected.

Recent polls have shown that Mr. Raisi is Mr. Rouhani’s biggest opponent. One shows that Mr. Rouhani has a commanding lead with 42% of the vote, Mr. Qalibaf with 25% of the vote, and Mr. Raisi with 27% of the vote, with the remaining 6% of the votes being split between three other small party candidates. A different poll shows that Mr. Rouhai with a commanding lead with 29% of the vote, Mr. Qalibaf at 12% and Mr. Raisi with 11%. The remaining votes unaccounted for are either undecided (28%) or declined to answer (20%).

Both scenarios, however, fail to give any one candidate the majority vote. If none of the candidates receive 50% of the votes, the election will then go to a run-off which will be held on May 26th.

Mr. Janghiri’s campaign was actually very critical to Mr. Rouhani’s incumbent campaign. Throughout the various presidential debates, Janghiri defended the President’s record during his time spent in office as well as attacked the conservative rivals who he would face.

Nearing the end of the election, it is becoming quite clear that this election will be decided by the candidate’s economic viewpoints. During his time in office, Rouhani has come under fire due to a nuclear deal that has not lead to the economic benefits that were originally predicted. If elected, Mr. Raisi has promised to create a self-sufficient “resistance economy.” Part of this self-sufficient economy would be the creation of six million jobs while also tripling cash hand-outs to the poor.

Mr. Rouhani had a very successful first term with the increase in the nation’s GDP, dropping inflation into the single digits, and turning their trade deficit into a surplus. Although he had promised much more to the business executives of the country, they are willing to give him a second chance.

The election will occur on May 19th, and with no definitive front-runner, this could turn into a critical election.

Featured Image via Wikimedia/Mohammad Hassanzadeh