As DeSantis stumbles, anti-Trump Republicans fear a rerun in 2024 campaign

Current and former Republican Party insiders who have spent years trying to expel Donald Trump from American politics believe the former president’s 2024 campaign has gained so much steam that they worry he is by far the favorite to become the party’s presidential nominee again.

While the party’s nomination race is still early, the angst among “Never Trumpers”—a small group of Republicans who have publicly opposed Trump since his 2016 election—could indicate that the former president is gaining momentum over his top potential rival Ron DeSantis.

Anti-Trump contributors warn Florida governor DeSantis risks being eclipsed by Trump’s fundraising, polling, and legislative backing.

In an early April Reuters/Ipsos poll, Trump led DeSantis 58% to 21% among Republican and independent voters. Trump leads DeSantis in Republican polls.

Some “Never Trumpers,” who have left the Republican Party but still oppose Trump and try to discredit him with voters, say their expectations for DeSantis are fading.

Some have quit.

We would prevent Trump’s nomination. “But he’s going to be the nominee,” said Reed Galen, co-founder of the Lincoln Project, a prominent anti-Trump group of current and former Republicans.

The Lincoln Project spent millions on 2020 anti-Trump commercials on social media, TV, and newspapers. Galen said it’s looking beyond the 2024 Republican candidacy.

Galen said the group will raise money for advertising to target Trump in presidential swing states, not to prevent him from being the nominee but to hurt him before the 2024 general election against expected Democratic contender President Joe Biden.

DeSantis’s confusing messaging on U.S. support for Ukraine, his unwillingness to respond aggressively to Trump’s insults, and his weaker performance in several national and important state surveys have alarmed allies and funders.

Political strategists note that while DeSantis’ early campaign has faded, it is still early in the nominating process and he is not yet a contender.

Republican strategist Doug Heye said DeSantis had plenty of time to change direction.

TURNAROUND
Since Trump’s midterm election endorsements lost to Democrats, both Trump and DeSantis have seen their political fortunes change. Republican lawmakers, party officials, and people thought he was weak and considered a change.

DeSantis, fresh off a stunning second-term win and with a growing list of conservative legislative victories, seemed to be that person.

Since his April 4 indictment for hush money payments to a porn star, many Republicans have supported Trump. He has gained Republican congressional and Florida endorsements.

According to FiveThirtyEight.com, Trump has 66 Republican nomination support, including 56 from Congress. DeSantis four.

Early endorsements by elected party officials boost contenders and anticipate presidential nominations.

Trump secured five Florida congressmen’s support this week with a Thursday night “thank you” supper at Mar-a-Lago.

In January, a University of New Hampshire survey showed DeSantis leading Trump by 12 points in New Hampshire. Trump took a 20-point advantage in a poll this week.

Trump’s fundraising has increased. Aides claim his combined fundraising committee and campaign raised roughly $19 million in the first quarter. That followed his politically motivated indictment.

Trump has also upped his attacks on DeSantis, who is banning gender identity and sexual orientation education in schools, fighting gun control groups, and criticizing Walt Disney Co. (DIS.N). Trump’s Republican base isn’t responding to cultural war arguments.

This week, Trump wrote emails branding DeSantis a “loser” in his Disney fight. The Florida governor failed to oppose Trump and defended him on criminal charges.

DeSantis becomes a supporting actor in Trump’s drama by defending him on the indictment. “That weakens him,” said Republican strategist and Trump critic Sarah Longwell.

Longwell warned that Trump’s power could erode, but said, “It could be that DeSantis just doesn’t have it, that he doesn’t have the political talent.”

Trump’s spokesman declined comment. DeSantis advisers said he will run and consider Trump’s assaults as typical attempts to convince people the campaign is finished before the Florida governor declares his candidacy.

Several prominent funders told Reuters that DeSantis’ recent signature of a restriction on abortion after six weeks in Florida, his concentration on book bans, and his fight with Disney have caused them to stop.

“If it wasn’t for abortion and the book-banning, there would be no question I would support him,” metals magnate Andy Sabin told Reuters.

Trump has exhausted many Republican donors. Reuters interviewed over two dozen donors and their advisers who called him unstable and unelectable.

Many contributors believe DeSantis is the greatest candidate to defeat Trump, but they admit they are not trying to damage the former president. Some want to endorse DeSantis but aren’t ready.

Sam Nunberg, a former Trump assistant who broke with the former president years ago and now supports DeSantis, said that while the Florida governor appeared to be on the back foot this week, the damage would be temporary.