Arizona’s Special Election May Witness Close Margins

Arizona, a predominantly white district with a significant portion of senior voters, has been consistently Republican in the past years, yet this special election unveils the potential rise in Democrat and independent voters.

Arizona’s special election takes place on Tuesday, where Republicans face increasing threat from being passed by the Democrats. This race is especially interesting as while the district has voted Republicans for the past three years and majority red, it still is wary towards the Democrats.

Debbie Lesko will be racing against Democrat Hiral Tipirneni for the seat of Phoenix area. This seat has been consistently Republican in the past and Donald Trump won the district by over 20 percentage point. In the past, it also voted for Romney and other Republican candidates.

Many resources, efforts and money have been poured into Lesko’s campaign, including installing ads and deploying robo-calls from Mr. Trump. In total, the Republican National Committee and the National Republican Congressional Committee have spent over $900,000 on Ms. Lesko, while on the other hand, the Democrats have merely spent less than $250,000 on Tipirneni.

The contrast between the funds spent boosting each candidate is very telling. While Arizona is a district that the Republicans have held the obligation to maintain, the Democrats have deemed this predominantly white, senior district as impossible and a waste of money.

However, the margin might turn out to be closer than anticipated between the two parties. While most of the early ballots show signs of a clear trend of majority Republican voters, with a median age of 67, this advantage could be reversed by the change in mind of independent voters.

So far almost half of the Arizonan voters have cast their votes towards the Republican candidate, while a quarter of them were independent. In order for Tipirneni to win, she would need to snatch votes from the Republicans and win a majority of the independent votes.

The lack of a third party makes it harder for Ms. Tipirneni to win as a non-majority and the demographics of the Eighth District, white and seniors, constitutes a largely conservative-leaning voter base.

However, there seems to be a slight shift in the voter demographics, as the median age has been moving towards the younger in the later days of the race. This is an indication that those who were less conservative leaning and less loyal Republicans are now casting their votes, bringing hope to Ms. Tipirneni. Younger voters have shown a more mixed opinion in comparison to the senior voters significantly leaned towards the Republican candidate.

While the Republicans are still fairly confident with winning this special election and keeping the seat in the House, a close margin will bring alarm and wariness to the Republicans, signaling a closer, more competitive race between the two parties in the November election.