Analysis: Smoldering Iran nuclear crisis risks catching fire

While the US and its European allies deal with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and rising tensions with China, the Iran nuclear dilemma looms.

Three European officials said Britain, France, and Germany told Iran they would reinstate U.N. sanctions if it enriched uranium to nuclear weapon levels.

Last year, the countries’ foreign ministers threatened to develop 90%-pure bomb-grade uranium.

In February, U.N. inspectors found 83.7%-pure uranium particles in a deep-underground Iran nuclear site.

U.S. President Joe Biden is focused on preserving allies’ support for the conflict in Ukraine and mobilizing Western countries to oppose China’s military and diplomatic ambitions. A renewed Iran crisis would be awful timing.

Officials and observers warned White House aides may not have the luxury of keeping Iran off the president’s desk.

“They are busy with Ukraine, Russia and they don’t want, for the time being, to open another front,” said an anonymous Western official. “Therefore, they want to do everything in their power to prevent this (90%) from happening.”

UN SANCTIONS “SNAPBACK”?
Western authorities worry a nuclear-armed Iran might threaten Israel, Gulf Arab oil producers, and a regional arms race.

Iran denies nuclear ambitions.

Since informal U.S.-Iranian talks on restoring the 2015 nuclear deal between Iran, Britain, China, France, Germany, Russia, and the United States failed, U.S. and European officials have sought measures to limit Tehran’s development.

In exchange for lifting U.N., U.S., and EU sanctions, Tehran had to limit its nuclear program and allow more U.N. inspections.

Trump, who believed the deal was overly generous to Tehran, scrapped it in 2018.

Trump reinstated comprehensive U.S. sanctions, many of which force non-U.S. corporations to halt dealing with Iran or lose access to the U.S. market, but UN restrictions were not.

In reaction to Iranian infractions, the accord allowed for the veto-proof “snapback” of U.N. sanctions, including an oil embargo and banking restrictions. Any state that signed the original pact can activate the snapback.

Even with their secondary effects, U.S. sanctions have failed to stop Iran from generating ever-purer uranium, and China has flouted them by buying Iranian oil, making it uncertain if the U.N. restrictions would work.

To avoid the public reprimand of U.N. sanctions, Iran may not enrich to 90%.

Tehran would resist U.N. sanctions, according to a top nuclear official.

“If the other parties under any pretext trigger it, they will be responsible for all consequences,” he told Reuters. “Iran’s reaction could range from leaving the NPT (Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty) to accelerating our nuclear work.”

Iran could acquire nuclear weapons after leaving the NPT.

The Iranian official’s threat was more clear than a foreign ministry spokesman’s Monday statement that Iran has informed Western nations of its response.

The 83.7% particles may have been manufactured intentionally. Western officials and analysts say Iran’s 90% uranium output requires a substantial response.

A State Department spokesman said Biden “is absolutely committed” to preventing Iran from developing nuclear weapons.

“We believe diplomacy is the best way to achieve that goal, but President Biden has also been clear that we have not removed any option from the table,” the spokesperson said, implying military action.

“Face a Crisis”
Western authorities want diplomacy, but Russia and China tensions make it difficult.

Divisions over the Ukraine war, which has seen Iran provide military backing to Russia, and rising Sino-U.S. tensions limit the possibilities of reviving the accord because it is unknown how strongly Moscow or Beijing will press for it.

The West can deter, attack, or negotiate if the deal fails.

Deterrence might let Tehran develop nuclear weapons.

Dennis Ross, a former U.S. ambassador now at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy think tank, indicated Biden may need to do more to scare Iran into not enriching.

“If you don’t do enough to persuade the Iranians of the risks they are running, you will face a crisis at some point because they will go to 90%” or weaponize, he warned. “What you are seeing is an effort to walk that tightrope.”