Analysis: Calls for South Korean nuclear arsenal unlikely to fade despite US deal

Experts said the United States gave South Korea a wider role in preparation for a nuclear war with North Korea, but that will likely not assuage suspicions over U.S. defense pledges that have fueled calls for a South Korean nuclear arsenal.

The “Washington Declaration” announced Wednesday gives Seoul significant insights into and a role in U.S. nuclear deterrence and response preparations. Seoul reaffirmed its nuclear bomb ban.

The document is in many ways a response to growing doubts in South Korea that the United States would risk its own cities, which are in range of North Korea’s latest ballistic missiles, to defend its ally, as well as a sense that the South is a growing global power that should be nuclear-armed.

South Korea’s government also worries that a new US administration may cut defense aid.

President Yoon Suk Yeol called for the restoration of U.S. tactical nuclear weapons to South Korea as a candidate and suggested in January that the country may require its own arsenal.

He has subsequently walked back those comments, and one former senior U.S. official told Reuters that the Yoon administration’s nuclear talk was likely an attempt to secure Wednesday’s declaration’s planning and coordinating role.

“South Korea joins a small club of countries who used the mere threat of acquiring atomic weapons to wrest concessions from the United States,” tweeted Tristan Volpe of the Naval Postgraduate School in California.

“The concern I have is that leaders often find it difficult to put the nuclear genie back in the bottle,” he continued. “Domestic politics could distort long-term incentives for South Korean leaders to limit their nuclear options.”

Yoon is not the only senior South Korean official to propose nuclear weapons, and polls suggest the population supports them. Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon told Reuters in March that South Korea should acquire such weapons despite international repercussions to defend against North Korea.

“The Washington Declaration should snuff out the loose nuke talk by the Yoon administration,” said Seoul scholar Mason Richey. “But this is likely to be a hiatus on the debate, rather than a definitive end.”

NUCLEAR FOR NUCLEAR
Sue Mi Terry of the Wilson Center think tank said how the North Korean threat evolves would largely decide if the declaration will ease South Korean anxieties.

“A seventh North Korean nuclear test will, no doubt, increase alarm in South Korea and support for its own nuclear arsenal – or at least for steps such as stationing U.S. tactical nuclear weapons in South Korea or reaching a ‘nuclear sharing’ agreement that notably were not part of the Washington Declaration,” she said.

Siegfried Hecker warned in January that Seoul gaining nuclear weapons might have dire consequences. Breaking non-proliferation accords will undoubtedly cripple South Korea’s economy and harm global non-proliferation efforts.

U.S. commitment fears are not new. The US stationed hundreds of tactical nuclear weapons in South Korea and gave other assurances.

However, tensions rose when former President Donald Trump questioned the worth of the South Korean alliance and threatened to evacuate the 28,500 U.S. troops stationed there if Seoul didn’t pay billions more for their bills.

President Joe Biden immediately settled that debate and reassured Seoul. However, South Korean leaders argued his withdrawal from Afghanistan showed the need to reduce reliance on Washington.

Experts warned the possibility of Trump or someone like him winning the 2024 race will further increase uncertainty.

Retired South Korean submarine captain Choi Il told Reuters that South Korea’s fundamental response to the North Korean threat remained unaltered.

“An eye for an eye, nuclear for nuclear,” he declared. “We will use nuclear weapons if you attack us.”